The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Surrey v Lancashire

Kickoff: 2026-05-22 17:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Surrey (Local)

Prediction 60.75%1.65fair odd
EV -0.976%
Edge -0.599%
Kelly -1.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.89%60.54%60.82%62.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.541.521.6367.57%64.90%65.79%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lancashire (Visit)

Prediction 39.25%2.55fair odd
EV -1.88%
Edge -0.751%
Kelly -1.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.66%39.46%39.18%42.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.402.502.5045.45%41.58%40.00%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Surrey (Local): 60.75%; Lancashire (Visit): 39.25%. For Surrey (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.65. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.63, with an expected value of -0.976%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -0.976%E -0.599%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -11.69%E -5.20%K -9.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-22 17:20
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -1.58%E -0.978%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -11.69%E -5.20%K -9.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-22 17:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -2.19%E -1.36%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -11.69%E -5.20%K -9.35%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-22 17:20
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -2.19%E -1.36%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -11.69%E -5.20%K -9.35%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-22 17:20
Betway🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -2.80%E -1.75%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -13.65%E -6.21%K -11.38%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-22 17:20
Pinnacle🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.33%EV -4.62%E -2.94%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.67%EV -10.12%E -4.42%K -7.84%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-22 04:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -5.84%E -3.77%K -10.61%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.76%E -3.30%K -5.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-22 01:29
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -5.84%E -3.77%K -10.61%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -9.73%E -4.23%K -7.48%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-22 17:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.10%EV -6.44%E -4.18%K -11.93%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.90%EV -8.94%E -3.85%K -6.77%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-22 17:10
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -7.05%E -4.61%K -13.30%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -1.88%E -0.751%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-22 11:29
Unibet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -7.66%E -5.04%K -14.73%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -1.88%E -0.751%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-22 17:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -7.66%E -5.04%K -14.73%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -1.88%E -0.751%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-22 17:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -7.66%E -5.04%K -14.73%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -1.88%E -0.751%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-22 17:10
TAB🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -7.66%E -5.04%K -14.73%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -1.88%E -0.751%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-22 17:20
TABtouch🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -8.27%E -5.47%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -1.88%E -0.751%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-22 17:10
Casumo🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -8.27%E -5.47%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -1.88%E -0.751%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-22 17:10
Grosvenor🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -8.27%E -5.47%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -1.88%E -0.751%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-22 17:10
LeoVegas🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -8.27%E -5.47%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -1.88%E -0.751%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-22 17:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -8.27%E -5.47%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -1.88%E -0.751%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-22 17:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -8.27%E -5.47%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -1.88%E -0.751%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-22 17:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -8.27%E -5.47%K -16.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -1.88%E -0.751%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-22 17:10
Bet Victor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.87%E -5.92%K -17.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -5.80%E -2.42%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-22 17:20
Betsson🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%EV -10.09%E -6.82%K -21.02%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV -3.84%E -1.57%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-22 17:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46%0.5%2026-05-22 17:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46%0.5%2026-05-22 17:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46%0.5%2026-05-22 17:20
Matchbook◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.88%2.42I 41.32%NM 41.12%0.5%2026-05-22 17:20
Smarkets◎1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%5.3%2026-05-22 17:20