The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Surrey v Hampshire

Kickoff: 2026-06-05 17:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Surrey (Local)

Prediction 62.08%1.61fair odd
EV +2.44%
Edge +1.48%
Kelly +3.75%
Growth +0.091%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.69%61.46%62.09%65.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.491.471.6569.44%67.33%68.03%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hampshire (Visit)

Prediction 37.92%2.64fair odd
EV +2.38%
Edge +0.881%
Kelly +1.40%
Growth +0.033%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.94%38.54%37.91%43.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.162.562.602.7046.30%39.03%38.46%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Surrey (Local): 62.08%; Hampshire (Visit): 37.92%. For Surrey (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.61. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.44%.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.69%EV +2.44%E +1.48%K +3.75%G +0.091%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.31%EV -18.10%E -8.38%K -15.60%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-04 10:59
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -5.01%E -3.28%K -9.46%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -9.76%E -4.10%K -7.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-05 17:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.63%E -3.71%K -10.84%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -5.21%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-05 17:19
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -6.88%E -4.58%K -13.75%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -0.656%E -0.250%K -0.405%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-05 17:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -6.88%E -4.58%K -13.75%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -0.656%E -0.250%K -0.405%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-05 17:20
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -6.88%E -4.58%K -13.75%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -0.656%E -0.250%K -0.405%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-05 17:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.09%EV -7.50%E -5.03%K -15.30%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 37.91%EV -7.48%E -3.07%K -5.20%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-05 17:20
TABtouch🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -8.74%E -5.94%K -18.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -1.41%E -0.544%K -0.884%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-05 17:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -8.74%E -5.94%K -18.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -1.41%E -0.544%K -0.884%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-05 17:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -8.74%E -5.94%K -18.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -1.41%E -0.544%K -0.884%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-05 17:20
Casumo🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -8.74%E -5.94%K -18.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -1.41%E -0.544%K -0.884%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-05 17:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -8.74%E -5.94%K -18.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -1.41%E -0.544%K -0.884%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-05 17:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -8.74%E -5.94%K -18.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -1.41%E -0.544%K -0.884%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-05 17:20
Grosvenor🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -8.74%E -5.94%K -18.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -1.41%E -0.544%K -0.884%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-05 17:20
Unibet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -8.74%E -5.94%K -18.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -1.41%E -0.544%K -0.884%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-05 17:19
LeoVegas🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -8.74%E -5.94%K -18.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -1.41%E -0.544%K -0.884%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-05 17:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -8.74%E -5.94%K -18.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -1.41%E -0.544%K -0.884%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-05 17:20
SportsBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.65%EV -9.36%E -6.41%K -20.35%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.35%EV +1.24%E +0.464%K +0.743%G +0.009%5.9%2026-06-05 17:19
TAB🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -9.98%E -6.88%K -22.18%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV +2.38%E +0.881%K +1.40%G +0.033%6.0%2026-06-05 17:20
Betway🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -9.98%E -6.88%K -22.18%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -5.21%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000%9.0%2026-06-05 17:20
Bet Victor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -10.60%E -7.36%K -24.09%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -1.41%E -0.544%K -0.884%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-05 17:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.91%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.09%0.5%2026-06-05 17:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.52I 65.79%NM 65.45%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.55%0.5%2026-06-05 17:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.60%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.40%0.9%2026-06-05 17:20
Matchbook◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.60%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.40%0.9%2026-06-05 17:20
Smarkets◎1.49I 67.11%NM 65.75%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.25%2.1%2026-06-05 17:20