The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Somerset v Hampshire

Kickoff: 2026-05-22 17:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Somerset (Local)

Prediction 59.18%1.69fair odd
EV -4.73%
Edge -2.94%
Kelly -7.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.89%59.25%59.06%60.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.571.571.6164.52%63.62%63.69%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hampshire (Visit)

Prediction 40.82%2.45fair odd
EV -2.84%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -2.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.59%40.75%40.94%42.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.322.382.3845.45%43.05%42.02%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Somerset (Local): 59.18%; Hampshire (Visit): 40.82%. For Hampshire (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.45. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.38, with an expected value of -2.84%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -4.73%E -2.94%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -8.14%E -3.62%K -6.52%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-22 17:20
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -4.73%E -2.94%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -8.14%E -3.62%K -6.52%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-22 17:20
TAB🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.32%E -3.32%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.10%E -2.65%K -4.69%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-22 17:09
Betr (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -5.32%E -3.32%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -10.19%E -4.63%K -8.49%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-22 17:10
SportsBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.59%EV -6.50%E -4.12%K -11.21%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.41%EV -4.88%E -2.09%K -3.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-22 17:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.53%EV -6.50%E -4.12%K -11.21%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.47%EV -8.96%E -4.02%K -7.29%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-22 16:40
Unibet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.09%E -4.52%K -12.45%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -2.84%E -1.19%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-22 17:20
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.09%E -4.52%K -12.45%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -2.84%E -1.19%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-22 17:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.09%E -4.52%K -12.45%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -2.84%E -1.19%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-22 17:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.09%E -4.52%K -12.45%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -2.84%E -1.19%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-22 17:20
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.09%E -4.52%K -12.45%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -2.84%E -1.19%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-22 16:30
Bet Victor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.09%E -4.52%K -12.45%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.14%E -3.62%K -6.52%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-22 17:09
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.09%E -4.52%K -12.45%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.14%E -3.62%K -6.52%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-22 16:30
TABtouch🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%EV -7.69%E -4.93%K -13.73%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -2.84%E -1.19%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-22 17:20
Casumo🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%EV -7.69%E -4.93%K -13.73%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -2.84%E -1.19%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-22 17:20
Grosvenor🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%EV -7.69%E -4.93%K -13.73%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -2.84%E -1.19%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-22 17:20
LeoVegas🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%EV -7.69%E -4.93%K -13.73%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -2.84%E -1.19%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-22 17:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%EV -7.69%E -4.93%K -13.73%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -2.84%E -1.19%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-22 17:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%EV -7.69%E -4.93%K -13.73%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -2.84%E -1.19%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-22 17:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%EV -7.69%E -4.93%K -13.73%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -2.84%E -1.19%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-22 17:20
Pinnacle🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.69%EV -7.69%E -4.93%K -13.73%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 40.31%EV -5.70%E -2.47%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-22 17:00
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -8.28%E -5.34%K -15.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -8.14%E -3.62%K -6.52%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-22 17:10
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -8.28%E -5.34%K -15.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -8.14%E -3.62%K -6.52%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-22 17:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.0%2026-05-22 17:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.0%2026-05-22 17:20
Matchbook◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.0%2026-05-22 17:20
Smarkets◎1.65I 60.61%NM 59.85%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.15%1.3%2026-05-22 17:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.19%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.81%1.3%2026-05-22 17:20