The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Nottinghamshire v Yorkshire

Kickoff: 2026-05-22 17:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nottinghamshire (Local)

Prediction 50.54%1.98fair odd
EV -1.95%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -2.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.65%50.41%50.54%51.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.861.851.9456.18%53.79%54.05%51.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Yorkshire (Visit)

Prediction 49.46%2.02fair odd
EV -3.55%
Edge -1.82%
Kelly -3.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.37%49.59%49.46%51.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.901.911.9555.56%52.57%52.36%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nottinghamshire (Local): 50.54%; Yorkshire (Visit): 49.46%. For Nottinghamshire (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.98. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.94, with an expected value of -1.95%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -1.95%E -1.01%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -8.01%E -4.30%K -9.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-22 17:20
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.47%E -1.82%K -3.81%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.53%E -2.90%K -6.08%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-22 17:20
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.47%E -1.82%K -3.81%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.53%E -2.90%K -6.08%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-22 12:10
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.47%E -1.82%K -3.81%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.53%E -2.90%K -6.08%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-22 17:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -3.47%E -1.82%K -3.81%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -9.49%E -5.19%K -11.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-22 17:10
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -3.47%E -1.82%K -3.81%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -9.49%E -5.19%K -11.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-22 17:10
Betway🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -3.97%E -2.09%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -10.97%E -6.10%K -13.72%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-22 17:10
Pinnacle🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -4.98%E -2.65%K -5.66%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.40%EV -8.50%E -4.59%K -10.00%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-22 01:20
TAB🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -6.50%E -3.51%K -7.65%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -3.55%E -1.82%K -3.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-22 17:09
Unibet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -6.50%E -3.51%K -7.65%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -4.54%E -2.35%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-22 17:10
TABtouch🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -6.50%E -3.51%K -7.65%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -4.54%E -2.35%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-22 17:10
Casumo🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -6.50%E -3.51%K -7.65%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -4.54%E -2.35%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-22 17:10
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -6.50%E -3.51%K -7.65%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -4.54%E -2.35%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-22 17:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -6.50%E -3.51%K -7.65%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -4.54%E -2.35%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-22 17:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -6.50%E -3.51%K -7.65%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -4.54%E -2.35%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-22 17:10
LeoVegas🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -6.50%E -3.51%K -7.65%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -4.54%E -2.35%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-22 17:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -6.50%E -3.51%K -7.65%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -4.54%E -2.35%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-22 17:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -6.50%E -3.51%K -7.65%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -4.54%E -2.35%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-22 17:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -6.50%E -3.51%K -7.65%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -4.54%E -2.35%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-22 17:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.94%EV -7.51%E -4.10%K -9.05%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.06%EV -6.03%E -3.17%K -6.70%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-22 17:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.08%EV -8.52%E -4.71%K -10.52%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.92%EV -6.52%E -3.45%K -7.33%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-22 17:20
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -9.03%E -5.02%K -11.28%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -5.53%E -2.90%K -6.08%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-22 17:09
NordicBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.63%EV -10.04%E -5.64%K -12.87%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.37%EV -6.03%E -3.17%K -6.70%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-22 17:10
Betsson🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.63%EV -10.04%E -5.64%K -12.87%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.37%EV -6.03%E -3.17%K -6.70%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-22 17:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.95I 51.28%NM 50.88%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.12%0.8%2026-05-22 17:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.95I 51.28%NM 50.88%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.12%0.8%2026-05-22 17:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.95I 51.28%NM 50.88%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.12%0.8%2026-05-22 17:20
Matchbook◎1.95I 51.28%NM 50.88%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.12%0.8%2026-05-22 17:10
Smarkets◎1.90I 52.63%NM 51.16%1.99I 50.25%NM 48.84%2.9%2026-05-22 17:20