The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Nottinghamshire v Birmingham Bears

Kickoff: 2026-06-05 17:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nottinghamshire (Local)

Prediction 58.67%1.70fair odd
EV -2.02%
Edge -1.21%
Kelly -3.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.85%58.75%58.90%60.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.581.571.6765.36%63.46%63.69%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Birmingham Bears (Visit)

Prediction 41.33%2.42fair odd
EV -0.810%
Edge -0.338%
Kelly -0.579%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.13%41.25%41.10%43.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.172.322.352.4046.08%43.16%42.55%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nottinghamshire (Local): 58.67%; Birmingham Bears (Visit): 41.33%. For Birmingham Bears (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.42. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.40, with an expected value of -0.810%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.02%E -1.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.08%E -4.13%K -7.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-02 14:09
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -3.19%E -1.94%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -9.08%E -4.13%K -7.56%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-03 17:40
Pinnacle🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.96%EV -3.78%E -2.30%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.04%EV -10.32%E -4.75%K -8.82%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-04 03:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.13%E -3.83%K -10.21%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -9.08%E -4.13%K -7.56%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-05 17:09
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.89%E -5.02%K -13.84%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -1.64%E -0.688%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-05 17:09
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.15%EV -7.89%E -5.02%K -13.84%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.85%EV -2.05%E -0.865%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-05 17:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.15%EV -7.89%E -5.02%K -13.84%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.85%EV -2.05%E -0.865%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-05 17:09
Unibet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.89%E -5.02%K -13.84%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -2.88%E -1.22%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-05 17:09
Virgin Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.89%E -5.02%K -13.84%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -2.88%E -1.22%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-05 17:09
LiveScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.89%E -5.02%K -13.84%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -2.88%E -1.22%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-05 17:09
Marathon Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.89%E -5.02%K -13.84%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.01%E -3.12%K -5.61%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-05 17:09
Bet Victor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.89%E -5.02%K -13.84%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.01%E -3.12%K -5.61%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-05 17:10
Casumo🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -8.47%E -5.43%K -15.13%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -2.88%E -1.22%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-05 17:09
Grosvenor🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -8.47%E -5.43%K -15.13%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -2.88%E -1.22%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-05 17:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -8.47%E -5.43%K -15.13%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -2.88%E -1.22%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-05 17:09
Unibet (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -8.47%E -5.43%K -15.13%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -2.88%E -1.22%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-05 17:09
LeoVegas🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -8.47%E -5.43%K -15.13%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -2.88%E -1.22%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-05 17:09
TABtouch🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -8.47%E -5.43%K -15.13%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -2.88%E -1.22%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-05 17:09
ATG (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -8.47%E -5.43%K -15.13%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -2.88%E -1.22%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-05 17:09
SportsBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -9.06%E -5.85%K -16.47%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -0.810%E -0.338%K -0.579%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-05 17:10
Betway🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -9.06%E -5.85%K -16.47%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -4.94%E -2.15%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-05 17:10
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -10.23%E -6.69%K -19.31%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -1.64%E -0.688%K -1.19%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-05 17:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.63I 61.35%NM 60.72%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.28%1.0%2026-06-05 17:10
Matchbook◎1.63I 61.35%NM 60.72%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.28%1.0%2026-06-05 17:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.87%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.13%1.4%2026-06-05 17:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.87%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.13%1.4%2026-06-05 17:20
Smarkets◎1.61I 62.11%NM 60.05%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.95%3.4%2026-06-05 17:20