The School of Odds
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Northamptonshire v Worcestershire

Kickoff: 2026-06-09 17:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Northamptonshire (Local)

Prediction 62.47%1.60fair odd
EV -3.79%
Edge -2.46%
Kelly -7.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.41%62.47%62.50%65.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.471.451.5469.93%68.21%68.97%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Worcestershire (Visit)

Prediction 37.53%2.66fair odd
EV +1.32%
Edge +0.488%
Kelly +0.776%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.62%37.53%37.50%39.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.602.622.7042.55%38.52%38.17%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Northamptonshire (Local): 62.47%; Worcestershire (Visit): 37.53%. For Worcestershire (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.66. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.32%.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
LiveScore Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -10.04%E -6.97%K -22.81%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV +1.32%E +0.488%K +0.776%G +0.010%6.5%2026-06-09 17:19
Unibet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -10.04%E -6.97%K -22.81%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV +1.32%E +0.488%K +0.776%G +0.010%6.5%2026-06-09 17:19
Virgin Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -10.04%E -6.97%K -22.81%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV +1.32%E +0.488%K +0.776%G +0.010%6.5%2026-06-09 17:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -10.66%E -7.46%K -24.79%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV +1.32%E +0.488%K +0.776%G +0.010%7.0%2026-06-09 17:19
Grosvenor🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -10.66%E -7.46%K -24.79%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV +1.32%E +0.488%K +0.776%G +0.010%7.0%2026-06-09 17:20
Casumo🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -10.66%E -7.46%K -24.79%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV +1.32%E +0.488%K +0.776%G +0.010%7.0%2026-06-09 17:19
Unibet (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -10.66%E -7.46%K -24.79%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV +1.32%E +0.488%K +0.776%G +0.010%7.0%2026-06-09 17:20
LeoVegas🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -10.66%E -7.46%K -24.79%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV +1.32%E +0.488%K +0.776%G +0.010%7.0%2026-06-09 17:19
TABtouch🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -10.66%E -7.46%K -24.79%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV +1.32%E +0.488%K +0.776%G +0.010%7.0%2026-06-09 17:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -10.66%E -7.46%K -24.79%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV +1.32%E +0.488%K +0.776%G +0.010%7.0%2026-06-09 17:19
SportsBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -8.79%E -6.02%K -19.10%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -0.558%E -0.210%K -0.338%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-09 17:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -6.29%E -4.19%K -12.58%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -1.68%E -0.643%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-09 17:19
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -6.29%E -4.19%K -12.58%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -1.68%E -0.643%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-09 17:19
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -6.29%E -4.19%K -12.58%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -1.68%E -0.643%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-09 17:19
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -10.04%E -6.97%K -22.81%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -1.68%E -0.643%K -1.04%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-09 17:20
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.29%E -4.19%K -12.58%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.43%E -0.936%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-08 19:09
Bet Victor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.29%E -4.19%K -12.58%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.19%E -2.47%K -4.12%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-09 16:59
TAB🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.29%E -4.19%K -12.58%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.19%E -2.47%K -4.12%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-09 17:20
Betway🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -9.41%E -6.49%K -20.92%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -6.19%E -2.47%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.0%2026-06-09 17:20
Betsson🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -9.41%E -6.49%K -20.92%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -6.19%E -2.47%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.0%2026-06-09 16:59
NordicBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -9.41%E -6.49%K -20.92%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -6.19%E -2.47%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.0%2026-06-09 16:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.65%EV -4.41%E -2.88%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.35%EV -7.69%E -3.13%K -5.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-08 13:09
Betr (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -6.29%E -4.19%K -12.58%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -8.06%E -3.29%K -5.56%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-07 18:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.64%EV -6.29%E -4.19%K -12.58%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 38.36%EV -9.56%E -3.97%K -6.78%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-09 17:19
Pinnacle🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.41%EV -3.79%E -2.46%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -11.82%E -5.03%K -8.75%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-09 15:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.80%0.5%2026-06-09 17:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.52%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48%0.6%2026-06-09 17:20
Matchbook◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.52%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48%0.6%2026-06-09 17:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.55I 64.52%NM 63.70%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.30%1.3%2026-06-09 17:20
Smarkets◎1.54I 64.94%NM 63.85%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.15%1.7%2026-06-09 17:20