Language:English
Northamptonshire v Somerset
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Northamptonshire (Local)
Prediction 56.52%1.77fair odd
EV +1.74%
Edge +0.966%
Kelly +2.17%
Growth +0.038%
assuming max odds 1.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.85%57.07%56.70%63.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.661.671.8066.67%60.14%59.88%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Somerset (Visit)
Prediction 43.48%2.30fair odd
EV +13.91%
Edge +5.31%
Kelly +8.59%
Growth +1.19%
assuming max odds 2.62
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.41%42.93%43.30%46.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.192.202.6250.00%45.64%45.45%38.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Northamptonshire (Local): 56.52%; Somerset (Visit): 43.48%. For Somerset (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.30. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.62, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.91%.
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -15.22%E -10.14%K -30.43%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV +13.91%E +5.31%K +8.59%G +1.19% | 4.8% | 2026-07-05 14:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -13.52%E -8.84%K -25.51%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +8.69%E +3.48%K +5.80%G +0.504% | 5.4% | 2026-07-05 14:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -11.26%E -7.17%K -19.76%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -0.001%E -0.000%K -0.001%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-03 14:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.27%EV -11.83%E -7.58%K -21.12%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 40.73%EV -1.31%E -0.575%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-05 14:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -9.00%E -5.59%K -14.75%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -2.17%E -0.966%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-02 13:39 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -9.00%E -5.59%K -14.75%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -2.17%E -0.966%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-02 13:39 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -9.00%E -5.59%K -14.75%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -2.17%E -0.966%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-02 13:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -9.00%E -5.59%K -14.75%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -2.17%E -0.966%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-02 13:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -9.00%E -5.59%K -14.75%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -2.17%E -0.966%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-02 13:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -9.00%E -5.59%K -14.75%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -2.17%E -0.966%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-02 13:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -9.00%E -5.59%K -14.75%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -2.17%E -0.966%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-02 13:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -9.00%E -5.59%K -14.75%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -2.17%E -0.966%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-02 13:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -9.00%E -5.59%K -14.75%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -2.17%E -0.966%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-02 13:39 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.04%E -3.00%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.35%E -1.98%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-05 14:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.04%E -3.00%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.35%E -1.98%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-05 14:15 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.61%E -3.36%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.35%E -1.98%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-05 14:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.61%E -3.36%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.35%E -1.98%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-05 14:14 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.04%E -3.00%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.52%E -3.03%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-05 14:14 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.74%E -4.08%K -10.37%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.52%E -3.03%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-05 14:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%EV +1.74%E +0.966%K +2.17%G +0.038% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%EV -8.70%E -4.14%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-07-05 14:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%EV +1.74%E +0.966%K +2.17%G +0.038% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%EV -8.70%E -4.14%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-07-05 14:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.22%E -1.28%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -8.70%E -4.14%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-05 14:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.22%E -1.28%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -8.70%E -4.14%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-05 14:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.22%E -1.28%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -8.70%E -4.14%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-05 14:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.61%E -3.36%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.70%E -4.14%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-05 14:14 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -2.78%E -1.62%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -9.57%E -4.60%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-05 14:19 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -1.09%E -0.621%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -10.87%E -5.30%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-05 14:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -1.09%E -0.621%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -10.87%E -5.30%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-05 14:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -1.09%E -0.621%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -10.87%E -5.30%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-05 14:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -1.65%E -0.949%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -10.87%E -5.30%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-05 14:23 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -3.91%E -2.30%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -13.04%E -6.52%K -13.04%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-07-05 14:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06% | 0.4% | 2026-07-05 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06% | 0.4% | 2026-07-05 14:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78% | 0.6% | 2026-07-05 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.50% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.50% | 1.7% | 2026-07-05 14:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 55.56% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.44% | 2.3% | 2026-07-05 14:25 |
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