The School of Odds
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Northamptonshire v Gloucestershire

Kickoff: 2026-07-15 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Northamptonshire (Local)

Prediction 57.44%1.74fair odd
EV -2.35%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -3.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.84%57.69%57.69%60.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.641.621.7064.52%61.03%61.73%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gloucestershire (Visit)

Prediction 42.56%2.35fair odd
EV -0.414%
Edge -0.177%
Kelly -0.309%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.85%42.31%42.31%44.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.222.202.3446.51%45.00%45.45%42.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Northamptonshire (Local): 57.44%; Gloucestershire (Visit): 42.56%. For Gloucestershire (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.35. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.34, with an expected value of -0.414%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Betway1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -2.35%E -1.38%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -6.37%E -2.90%K -5.31%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-15 15:49
William Hill1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.35%E -1.38%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -8.50%E -3.95%K -7.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-15 12:29
Ladbrokes (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.07%E -2.44%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.37%E -2.90%K -5.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-15 15:49
Sky Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.07%E -2.44%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.37%E -2.90%K -5.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-15 15:50
Coral1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.07%E -2.44%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.37%E -2.90%K -5.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-15 15:49
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.07%E -2.44%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.37%E -2.90%K -5.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-15 15:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.07%E -2.44%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.37%E -2.90%K -5.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-15 15:50
888sport1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.07%E -2.44%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.37%E -2.90%K -5.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-15 15:45
Ladbrokes (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.07%E -2.44%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -8.50%E -3.95%K -7.39%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-15 15:49
Neds1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.07%E -2.44%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -8.50%E -3.95%K -7.39%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-15 15:49
Unibet (UK)1.66I 60.24%NM 56.77%EV -4.65%E -2.80%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -7.22%E -3.31%K -6.12%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-15 15:49
Betsson1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.22%E -3.16%K -8.03%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.24%E -1.89%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-15 11:35
NordicBet1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.22%E -3.16%K -8.03%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.24%E -1.89%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-15 11:35
SportsBet1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.22%E -3.16%K -8.03%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.37%E -2.90%K -5.31%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-15 15:49
BetOnline.ag1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.22%E -3.16%K -8.03%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.37%E -2.90%K -5.31%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-15 13:59
BoyleSports1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.94%E -4.29%K -11.20%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -2.12%E -0.920%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-13 08:39
betfred_uk1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.94%E -4.29%K -11.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.24%E -1.89%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-15 15:45
LiveScore Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.94%E -4.29%K -11.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.24%E -1.89%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-15 15:15
Virgin Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.94%E -4.29%K -11.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.24%E -1.89%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-15 15:15
Casumo1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.94%E -4.29%K -11.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.24%E -1.89%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-15 15:15
Unibet (SE)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.94%E -4.29%K -11.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.24%E -1.89%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-15 15:15
Grosvenor1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.94%E -4.29%K -11.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.24%E -1.89%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-15 15:15
LeoVegas (SE)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.94%E -4.29%K -11.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.24%E -1.89%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-15 15:15
Unibet1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.94%E -4.29%K -11.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.24%E -1.89%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-15 15:15
TABtouch1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.94%E -4.29%K -11.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.24%E -1.89%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-15 15:15
ATG (SE)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.94%E -4.29%K -11.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.24%E -1.89%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-15 15:15
TAB1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.94%E -4.29%K -11.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.24%E -1.89%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-15 15:45
betano_uk1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.52%E -4.67%K -12.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -6.37%E -2.90%K -5.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-15 15:45
Bet Victor1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.52%E -4.67%K -12.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -6.37%E -2.90%K -5.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-15 15:50
Betr (AU)1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -8.09%E -5.06%K -13.49%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.37%E -2.90%K -5.31%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-15 11:34
Marathon Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 57.78%EV -8.09%E -5.06%K -13.49%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 42.22%EV -6.80%E -3.10%K -5.71%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-15 15:25
Pinnacle1.55I 64.52%NM 60.15%EV -10.97%E -7.07%K -19.94%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 39.85%EV -0.414%E -0.177%K -0.309%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-15 15:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.69I 59.17%NM 58.88%2.42I 41.32%NM 41.12%0.5%2026-07-15 15:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.69I 59.17%NM 58.88%2.42I 41.32%NM 41.12%0.5%2026-07-15 15:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.68I 59.52%NM 59.22%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78%0.5%2026-07-15 15:54
Matchbook1.68I 59.52%NM 59.22%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78%0.5%2026-07-15 15:54
Smarkets1.67I 59.88%NM 58.56%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.44%2.3%2026-07-15 15:54