The School of Odds
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Middlesex v Sussex

Kickoff: 2026-07-10 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Middlesex (Local)

Prediction 52.28%1.91fair odd
EV -0.142%
Edge -0.074%
Kelly -0.156%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.73%51.97%52.24%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.831.801.9156.18%54.61%55.56%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sussex (Visit)

Prediction 47.72%2.10fair odd
EV -4.56%
Edge -2.28%
Kelly -4.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.37%48.03%47.76%50.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.841.941.962.0054.35%51.45%51.02%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
William Hill1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -0.142%E -0.074%K -0.156%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -8.86%E -4.64%K -9.73%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-08 22:59
Unibet (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -1.71%E -0.910%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -10.29%E -5.47%K -11.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-09 12:50
Virgin Bet1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -1.71%E -0.910%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -10.29%E -5.47%K -11.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-09 12:50
LeoVegas (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -1.71%E -0.910%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -10.29%E -5.47%K -11.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-09 12:50
Grosvenor1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -1.71%E -0.910%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -10.29%E -5.47%K -11.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-09 12:50
LiveScore Bet1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -1.71%E -0.910%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -10.29%E -5.47%K -11.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-09 12:50
Casumo1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -1.71%E -0.910%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -10.29%E -5.47%K -11.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-09 12:49
TABtouch1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -1.71%E -0.910%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -10.29%E -5.47%K -11.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-09 12:49
Unibet1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -1.71%E -0.910%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -10.29%E -5.47%K -11.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-09 12:49
ATG (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -1.71%E -0.910%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -10.29%E -5.47%K -11.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-09 12:50
Marathon Bet1.86I 53.76%NM 49.73%EV -2.76%E -1.48%K -3.21%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 50.27%EV -12.20%E -6.63%K -14.52%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-10 15:38
SportsBet1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -4.85%E -2.66%K -5.91%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -5.52%E -2.79%K -5.63%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-10 15:44
Unibet (UK)1.81I 55.25%NM 52.24%EV -5.37%E -2.97%K -6.63%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.76%EV -5.52%E -2.79%K -5.63%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-10 15:45
Coral1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.89%E -3.27%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.56%E -2.28%K -4.56%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-10 15:44
Sky Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.89%E -3.27%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.56%E -2.28%K -4.56%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-10 15:44
Ladbrokes (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.89%E -3.27%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.56%E -2.28%K -4.56%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-10 15:45
Paddy Power1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.89%E -3.27%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.56%E -2.28%K -4.56%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-10 15:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.89%E -3.27%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.56%E -2.28%K -4.56%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-10 15:44
888sport1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.89%E -3.27%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.56%E -2.28%K -4.56%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-10 15:39
Betsson1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.89%E -3.27%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.56%E -2.28%K -4.56%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-10 15:39
NordicBet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.89%E -3.27%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.56%E -2.28%K -4.56%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-10 15:39
betfred_uk1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.89%E -3.27%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.56%E -2.28%K -4.56%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-10 15:37
TAB1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.89%E -3.27%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.56%E -2.28%K -4.56%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-10 15:40
Neds1.80I 55.56%NM 52.13%EV -5.89%E -3.27%K -7.37%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%EV -6.47%E -3.30%K -6.74%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-10 15:44
Ladbrokes (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.13%EV -5.89%E -3.27%K -7.37%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%EV -6.47%E -3.30%K -6.74%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-10 15:44
Bet Victor1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.89%E -3.27%K -7.37%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.95%E -3.56%K -7.31%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-10 15:43
Betway1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.89%E -3.27%K -7.37%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.95%E -3.56%K -7.31%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-10 15:44
Betr (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.89%E -3.27%K -7.37%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.95%E -3.56%K -7.31%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-10 15:39
Pinnacle1.78I 56.18%NM 52.53%EV -6.94%E -3.90%K -8.90%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.47%EV -5.99%E -3.04%K -6.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-10 15:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.87I 53.48%NM 53.60%2.16I 46.30%NM 46.40%-0.2%2026-07-10 15:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.82I 54.95%NM 54.73%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.27%0.4%2026-07-10 15:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78%0.6%2026-07-10 15:55
Matchbook1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78%0.6%2026-07-10 15:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.81I 55.25%NM 54.86%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.14%0.7%2026-07-10 15:55