Middlesex v Sussex

2026-07-10 16:00 — T20 Blast

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

49%

51%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Middlesex (Local)

Prediction 49.33%2.03fair odd

EV -1.35%

Edge -0.674%

Kelly -1.35%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

47.37%49.73%49.33%52.53%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.781.921.912.00MINMEANMEDIANMAX

All estimators

Consensus probabilities

47.37%2.111Min

52.53%1.904Max

49.73%2.011Mean

49.33%2.027Median

49.33%2.027IQM

49.81%2.008Margin-weighted

Sussex (Visit)

Prediction 50.67%1.97fair odd

EV -0.172%

Edge -0.088%

Kelly -0.178%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

47.47%50.27%50.67%52.63%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.801.861.851.97MINMEANMEDIANMAX

All estimators

Consensus probabilities

47.47%2.107Min

52.63%1.900Max

50.27%1.989Mean

50.67%1.973Median

50.67%1.973IQM

50.19%1.992Margin-weighted

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Middlesex (Local) ▼	Sussex (Visit)	Margin	Updated
Sky Bet	2.00I 50.00% NM 47.37%EV -1.35% E -0.674% K -1.35% G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56% NM 52.63%EV -8.79% E -4.88% K -10.98% G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-07-08 21:30
Paddy Power	2.00I 50.00% NM 47.37%EV -1.35% E -0.674% K -1.35% G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56% NM 52.63%EV -8.79% E -4.88% K -10.98% G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-07-08 21:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)	2.00I 50.00% NM 47.37%EV -1.35% E -0.674% K -1.35% G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56% NM 52.63%EV -8.79% E -4.88% K -10.98% G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-07-08 21:55
SportsBet	1.95I 51.28% NM 48.68%EV -3.81% E -1.96% K -4.01% G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05% NM 51.32%EV -6.25% E -3.38% K -7.36% G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-09 01:45
Neds	1.93I 51.81% NM 48.94%EV -4.80% E -2.49% K -5.16% G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05% NM 51.06%EV -6.25% E -3.38% K -7.36% G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-07-09 01:45
Ladbrokes (AU)	1.93I 51.81% NM 48.94%EV -4.80% E -2.49% K -5.16% G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05% NM 51.06%EV -6.25% E -3.38% K -7.36% G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-07-09 01:45
888sport	1.91I 52.36% NM 50.00%EV -5.79% E -3.03% K -6.36% G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36% NM 50.00%EV -3.21% E -1.68% K -3.53% G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-07-08 22:05
betfred_uk	1.91I 52.36% NM 50.00%EV -5.79% E -3.03% K -6.36% G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36% NM 50.00%EV -3.21% E -1.68% K -3.53% G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-07-08 22:09
William Hill	1.91I 52.36% NM 50.00%EV -5.79% E -3.03% K -6.36% G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36% NM 50.00%EV -3.21% E -1.68% K -3.53% G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-07-08 22:59
Coral	1.91I 52.36% NM 48.93%EV -5.79% E -3.03% K -6.36% G +0.000%	1.83I 54.64% NM 51.07%EV -7.27% E -3.97% K -8.76% G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-07-09 01:45
Ladbrokes (UK)	1.91I 52.36% NM 48.93%EV -5.79% E -3.03% K -6.36% G +0.000%	1.83I 54.64% NM 51.07%EV -7.27% E -3.97% K -8.76% G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-07-09 01:45
Unibet (UK)	1.91I 52.36% NM 48.66%EV -5.79% E -3.03% K -6.36% G +0.000%	1.81I 55.25% NM 51.34%EV -8.28% E -4.57% K -10.22% G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-07-09 01:44
Bet Victor	1.91I 52.36% NM 48.52%EV -5.79% E -3.03% K -6.36% G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56% NM 51.48%EV -8.79% E -4.88% K -10.98% G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-07-09 01:44
Betsson	1.90I 52.63% NM 50.00%EV -6.28% E -3.31% K -6.98% G +0.000%	1.90I 52.63% NM 50.00%EV -3.72% E -1.96% K -4.13% G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-08 22:04
NordicBet	1.90I 52.63% NM 50.00%EV -6.28% E -3.31% K -6.98% G +0.000%	1.90I 52.63% NM 50.00%EV -3.72% E -1.96% K -4.13% G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-08 22:05
TAB	1.90I 52.63% NM 50.00%EV -6.28% E -3.31% K -6.98% G +0.000%	1.90I 52.63% NM 50.00%EV -3.72% E -1.96% K -4.13% G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-08 22:09
Betway	1.90I 52.63% NM 48.65%EV -6.28% E -3.31% K -6.98% G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56% NM 51.35%EV -8.79% E -4.88% K -10.98% G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-07-09 01:45
Betr (AU)	1.87I 53.48% NM 50.00%EV -7.76% E -4.15% K -8.92% G +0.000%	1.87I 53.48% NM 50.00%EV -5.24% E -2.80% K -6.02% G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-07-08 22:05
Pinnacle	1.78I 56.18% NM 52.53%EV -12.20% E -6.85% K -15.64% G +0.000%	1.97I 50.76% NM 47.47%EV -0.172% E -0.088% K -0.178% G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-07-09 00:10

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (4)

Bookmaker	Middlesex (Local)	Sussex (Visit)	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets	1.95I 51.28% NM 48.68%	1.85I 54.05% NM 51.32%	5.3%	2026-07-09 01:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)	1.60I 62.50% NM 50.00%	1.60I 62.50% NM 50.00%	25.0%	2026-07-09 00:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)	1.60I 62.50% NM 50.00%	1.60I 62.50% NM 50.00%	25.0%	2026-07-09 00:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)	1.45I 68.97% NM 52.30%	1.59I 62.89% NM 47.70%	31.9%	2026-07-09 01:55