Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Middlesex v Surrey

Kickoff: 2026-05-24 11:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

34%

66%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Middlesex (Local)

Prediction 33.71%2.97fair odd

EV -2.23%

Edge -0.768%

Kelly -1.17%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

32.08%33.90%34.15%36.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.522.812.802.9039.68%35.57%35.71%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Surrey (Visit)

Prediction 66.29%1.51fair odd

EV -3.22%

Edge -2.21%

Kelly -7.01%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

63.32%66.10%65.85%67.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.361.411.401.4673.53%71.01%71.43%68.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Middlesex (Local): 33.71%; Surrey (Visit): 66.29%. For Middlesex (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.97. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.90, with an expected value of -2.23%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Unibet (SE)🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.23%E -0.768%K -1.17%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.20%E -5.14%K -18.00%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-05-24 10:50
LeoVegas🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.23%E -0.768%K -1.17%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.20%E -5.14%K -18.00%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-05-24 10:50
Unibet🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.23%E -0.768%K -1.17%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.20%E -5.14%K -18.00%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-05-24 10:50
Grosvenor🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.23%E -0.768%K -1.17%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.20%E -5.14%K -18.00%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-05-24 10:50
SportsBet🎯	2.89I 34.60%NM 32.63%EV -2.56%E -0.887%K -1.36%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.37%EV -7.20%E -5.14%K -18.00%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-24 10:50
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.89I 34.60%NM 32.63%EV -2.56%E -0.887%K -1.36%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.37%EV -7.20%E -5.14%K -18.00%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-24 10:50
Bet Victor🎯	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -2.90%E -1.01%K -1.54%G +0.000%	1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -9.85%E -7.24%K -27.37%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-05-24 10:50
Coral🎯	2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -3.24%E -1.13%K -1.73%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -7.20%E -5.14%K -18.00%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-05-24 10:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -3.24%E -1.13%K -1.73%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -7.20%E -5.14%K -18.00%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-05-24 10:50
Betsson🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -3.91%E -1.37%K -2.12%G +0.000%	1.36I 73.53%NM 67.70%EV -9.85%E -7.24%K -27.37%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-05-24 10:50
NordicBet🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -3.91%E -1.37%K -2.12%G +0.000%	1.36I 73.53%NM 67.70%EV -9.85%E -7.24%K -27.37%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-05-24 10:50
TAB🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -5.60%E -2.00%K -3.11%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.87%E -4.14%K -13.99%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-24 10:50
Casumo🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -5.60%E -2.00%K -3.11%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.87%E -4.14%K -13.99%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-23 12:09
Virgin Bet🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -5.60%E -2.00%K -3.11%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.87%E -4.14%K -13.99%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-23 12:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -5.60%E -2.00%K -3.11%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.87%E -4.14%K -13.99%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-23 12:10
LiveScore Bet🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -5.60%E -2.00%K -3.11%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.87%E -4.14%K -13.99%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-23 12:10
TABtouch🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -5.60%E -2.00%K -3.11%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.87%E -4.14%K -13.99%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-23 12:09
ATG (SE)🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -5.60%E -2.00%K -3.11%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.87%E -4.14%K -13.99%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-23 12:10
Betr (AU)🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -5.60%E -2.00%K -3.11%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -7.20%E -5.14%K -18.00%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-05-24 10:50
Paddy Power🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.28%E -2.65%K -4.16%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.55%E -3.16%K -10.34%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-05-24 10:40
BoyleSports🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.28%E -2.65%K -4.16%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.55%E -3.16%K -10.34%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-05-24 10:00
Betway🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.97%E -3.32%K -5.28%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.20%E -5.14%K -18.00%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-05-24 10:49
Pinnacle🎯	2.66I 37.59%NM 35.12%EV -10.32%E -3.88%K -6.22%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.88%EV -4.55%E -3.16%K -10.34%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-23 09:49
Marathon Bet🎯	2.52I 39.68%NM 36.68%EV -15.04%E -5.97%K -9.89%G +0.000%	1.46I 68.49%NM 63.32%EV -3.22%E -2.21%K -7.01%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-05-24 09:00

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52%	1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48%	0.7%	2026-05-24 10:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52%	1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48%	0.7%	2026-05-24 10:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52%	1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48%	0.7%	2026-05-24 10:50
Matchbook◎	3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52%	1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48%	0.7%	2026-05-24 10:50
Smarkets◎	3.10I 32.26%NM 31.72%	1.44I 69.44%NM 68.28%	1.7%	2026-05-24 10:50