The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Middlesex v Kent

Kickoff: 2026-05-22 17:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Middlesex (Local)

Prediction 41.94%2.38fair odd
EV -0.187%
Edge -0.078%
Kelly -0.135%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.75%41.91%42.11%43.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.282.292.3846.51%43.88%43.76%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kent (Visit)

Prediction 58.06%1.72fair odd
EV -3.04%
Edge -1.82%
Kelly -4.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.85%58.09%57.89%60.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.601.591.6763.69%62.61%62.89%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Middlesex (Local): 41.94%; Kent (Visit): 58.06%. For Middlesex (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.384. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.380, with an expected value of -0.187%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.187%E -0.078%K -0.135%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.84%E -5.63%K -15.51%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-22 01:09
Unibet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -1.44%E -0.615%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -8.26%E -5.23%K -14.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-22 17:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -1.44%E -0.615%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -8.26%E -5.23%K -14.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-22 17:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -1.44%E -0.615%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -8.26%E -5.23%K -14.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-22 17:10
TABtouch🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -1.44%E -0.615%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -8.84%E -5.63%K -15.51%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-22 17:10
Casumo🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -1.44%E -0.615%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -8.84%E -5.63%K -15.51%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-22 17:10
Grosvenor🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -1.44%E -0.615%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -8.84%E -5.63%K -15.51%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-22 17:10
LeoVegas🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -1.44%E -0.615%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -8.84%E -5.63%K -15.51%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-22 17:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -1.44%E -0.615%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -8.84%E -5.63%K -15.51%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-22 17:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -1.44%E -0.615%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -8.84%E -5.63%K -15.51%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-22 17:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -1.44%E -0.615%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -8.84%E -5.63%K -15.51%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-22 17:10
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.54%E -1.54%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.94%E -3.67%K -9.58%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-22 11:19
Pinnacle🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.04%EV -4.80%E -2.11%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.96%EV -8.26%E -5.23%K -14.25%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-22 10:50
TAB🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.64%E -2.51%K -4.51%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.94%E -3.67%K -9.58%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-22 16:50
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.64%E -2.51%K -4.51%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.94%E -3.67%K -9.58%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-22 16:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.74%E -3.52%K -6.45%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.04%E -1.82%K -4.53%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-22 17:00
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.74%E -3.52%K -6.45%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.04%E -1.82%K -4.53%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-22 17:00
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -7.74%E -3.52%K -6.45%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -4.20%E -2.54%K -6.46%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-22 17:00
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.74%E -3.52%K -6.45%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.10%E -4.44%K -11.84%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-22 16:49
NordicBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.74%E -3.52%K -6.45%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.10%E -4.44%K -11.84%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-22 17:10
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.74%E -3.52%K -6.45%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.10%E -4.44%K -11.84%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-22 16:50
Betsson🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.74%E -3.52%K -6.45%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.10%E -4.44%K -11.84%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-22 17:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 42.22%EV -8.16%E -3.72%K -6.85%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.78%EV -7.10%E -4.44%K -11.84%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-22 17:10
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -9.83%E -4.57%K -8.55%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%EV -7.10%E -4.44%K -11.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-22 17:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.65%1.74I 57.47%NM 57.35%0.2%2026-05-22 17:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81%1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19%0.5%2026-05-22 17:10
Matchbook◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51%1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49%0.5%2026-05-22 17:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 42.01%1.71I 58.48%NM 57.99%0.9%2026-05-22 17:10
Smarkets◎2.30I 43.48%NM 42.50%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.50%2.3%2026-05-22 17:10