The School of Odds

Lancashire v Yorkshire

Kickoff: 2026-07-10 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Lancashire (Local)

Prediction 48.60%2.06fair odd
EV -2.80%
Edge -1.40%
Kelly -2.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.93%48.45%48.65%50.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.901.941.942.0052.63%51.44%51.55%50.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Yorkshire (Visit)

Prediction 51.40%1.95fair odd
EV -1.82%
Edge -0.955%
Kelly -2.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%51.55%51.35%53.07%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.761.831.831.9156.82%54.65%54.64%52.36%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Sky Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.80%E -1.40%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.48%E -4.15%K -9.35%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-10 11:45
Paddy Power2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.80%E -1.40%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.48%E -4.15%K -9.35%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-10 11:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.80%E -1.40%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.48%E -4.15%K -9.35%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-10 11:45
William Hill2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.80%E -1.40%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.48%E -4.15%K -9.35%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-10 11:20
BoyleSports2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.80%E -1.40%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.48%E -4.15%K -9.35%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-10 17:39
Pinnacle1.99I 50.25%NM 46.93%EV -3.29%E -1.65%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.07%EV -9.53%E -5.42%K -12.54%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-10 17:55
SportsBet1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%EV -4.75%E -2.42%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%EV -5.42%E -2.95%K -6.45%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-10 17:40
NordicBet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.23%E -2.68%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.91%E -2.65%K -5.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-10 17:44
Betsson1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.23%E -2.68%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.91%E -2.65%K -5.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-10 17:44
Unibet (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -5.23%E -2.68%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -5.94%E -3.24%K -7.15%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-10 17:37
Virgin Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -5.23%E -2.68%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -5.94%E -3.24%K -7.15%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-10 17:40
LiveScore Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -5.23%E -2.68%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -5.94%E -3.24%K -7.15%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-10 17:39
Unibet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -5.23%E -2.68%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -5.94%E -3.24%K -7.15%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-10 17:40
Unibet (SE)1.94I 51.55%NM 48.54%EV -5.72%E -2.95%K -6.08%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.46%EV -5.94%E -3.24%K -7.15%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-10 17:40
LeoVegas (SE)1.94I 51.55%NM 48.54%EV -5.72%E -2.95%K -6.08%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.46%EV -5.94%E -3.24%K -7.15%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-10 17:40
Grosvenor1.94I 51.55%NM 48.54%EV -5.72%E -2.95%K -6.08%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.46%EV -5.94%E -3.24%K -7.15%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-10 17:40
Casumo1.94I 51.55%NM 48.54%EV -5.72%E -2.95%K -6.08%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.46%EV -5.94%E -3.24%K -7.15%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-10 17:40
TABtouch1.94I 51.55%NM 48.54%EV -5.72%E -2.95%K -6.08%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.46%EV -5.94%E -3.24%K -7.15%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-10 17:40
ATG (SE)1.94I 51.55%NM 48.54%EV -5.72%E -2.95%K -6.08%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.46%EV -5.94%E -3.24%K -7.15%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-10 17:40
Neds1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -6.20%E -3.21%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -4.91%E -2.65%K -5.77%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-10 17:40
Ladbrokes (AU)1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -6.20%E -3.21%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -4.91%E -2.65%K -5.77%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-10 17:40
TAB1.92I 52.08%NM 49.07%EV -6.69%E -3.48%K -7.27%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.93%EV -4.91%E -2.65%K -5.77%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-10 17:44
888sport1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -7.18%E -3.76%K -7.89%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -1.82%E -0.955%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-10 17:40
betfred_uk1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -7.18%E -3.76%K -7.89%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -1.82%E -0.955%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-10 17:40
Ladbrokes (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.18%E -3.76%K -7.89%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.94%E -3.24%K -7.15%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-10 17:40
Coral1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.18%E -3.76%K -7.89%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.94%E -3.24%K -7.15%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-10 17:40
Bet Victor1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.18%E -3.76%K -7.89%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.94%E -3.24%K -7.15%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-10 17:44
Betr (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 49.06%EV -7.66%E -4.03%K -8.51%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.94%EV -5.94%E -3.24%K -7.15%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-10 17:40
Betway1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -7.66%E -4.03%K -8.51%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -7.48%E -4.15%K -9.35%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-10 17:40
Marathon Bet1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -7.66%E -4.03%K -8.51%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -7.48%E -4.15%K -9.35%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-10 17:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 47.50%1.90I 52.63%NM 52.50%0.3%2026-07-10 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.87%1.91I 52.36%NM 52.13%0.4%2026-07-10 17:55
Matchbook2.10I 47.62%NM 47.37%1.89I 52.91%NM 52.63%0.5%2026-07-10 17:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.74%1.90I 52.63%NM 52.26%0.7%2026-07-10 17:55
Smarkets2.06I 48.54%NM 47.31%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.69%2.6%2026-07-10 17:55