Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lancashire v Leicestershire

Kickoff: 2026-05-29 17:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

64%

36%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lancashire (Local)

Prediction 64.20%1.56fair odd

EV +0.798%

Edge +0.508%

Kelly +1.40%

Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

60.25%63.78%64.53%66.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.411.441.441.5770.92%69.26%69.44%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Leicestershire (Visit)

Prediction 35.80%2.79fair odd

EV +2.02%

Edge +0.710%

Kelly +1.09%

Growth +0.022%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

33.10%36.22%35.47%39.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.382.662.702.8542.02%37.53%37.04%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lancashire (Local): 64.20%; Leicestershire (Visit): 35.80%. For Leicestershire (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.79. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.02%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
SportsBet🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -9.47%E -6.72%K -23.11%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV +2.02%E +0.710%K +1.09%G +0.022%	6.0%	2026-05-29 17:09
Coral🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -7.55%E -5.24%K -17.16%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -1.56%E -0.566%K -0.890%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-05-29 17:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -7.55%E -5.24%K -17.16%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -1.56%E -0.566%K -0.890%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-05-29 17:09
Paddy Power🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -7.55%E -5.24%K -17.16%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -1.56%E -0.566%K -0.890%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-05-29 17:09
TAB🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.91%E -4.76%K -15.35%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -3.35%E -1.24%K -1.97%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-29 17:09
Betway🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -7.55%E -5.24%K -17.16%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -3.35%E -1.24%K -1.97%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-05-29 17:09
Virgin Bet🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -7.55%E -5.24%K -17.16%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -3.35%E -1.24%K -1.97%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-05-29 17:09
Unibet🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -7.55%E -5.24%K -17.16%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -3.35%E -1.24%K -1.97%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-05-29 17:09
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -7.55%E -5.24%K -17.16%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -3.35%E -1.24%K -1.97%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-05-29 17:09
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -8.19%E -5.73%K -19.05%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -3.35%E -1.24%K -1.97%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-29 17:09
Casumo🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -8.19%E -5.73%K -19.05%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -3.35%E -1.24%K -1.97%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-29 17:09
Grosvenor🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -8.19%E -5.73%K -19.05%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -3.35%E -1.24%K -1.97%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-29 17:09
LeoVegas🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -8.19%E -5.73%K -19.05%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -3.35%E -1.24%K -1.97%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-29 17:09
TABtouch🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -8.19%E -5.73%K -19.05%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -3.35%E -1.24%K -1.97%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-29 17:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -8.19%E -5.73%K -19.05%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -3.35%E -1.24%K -1.97%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-29 17:09
ATG (SE)🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -8.19%E -5.73%K -19.05%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -3.35%E -1.24%K -1.97%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-29 17:09
Marathon Bet🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -8.83%E -6.22%K -21.03%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -5.14%E -1.94%K -3.11%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-05-29 17:19
Pinnacle🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 64.78%EV -8.19%E -5.73%K -19.05%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 35.22%EV -5.85%E -2.23%K -3.59%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-05-29 17:20
Bet Victor🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.55%E -5.24%K -17.16%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -6.21%E -2.37%K -3.83%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-05-29 17:08
Betr (AU)🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.91%E -4.76%K -15.35%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.93%E -2.66%K -4.33%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-05-29 17:09
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.30%EV -4.34%E -2.91%K -8.85%G +0.000%	2.57I 38.91%NM 36.70%EV -8.00%E -3.11%K -5.10%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-29 17:19
NordicBet🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -6.91%E -4.76%K -15.35%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -10.51%E -4.20%K -7.00%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-05-29 17:09
Betsson🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -6.91%E -4.76%K -15.35%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -10.51%E -4.20%K -7.00%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-05-29 17:09
BoyleSports🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV +0.798%E +0.508%K +1.40%G +0.011%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -14.80%E -6.22%K -10.73%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-05-29 12:38

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Matchbook◎	1.50I 66.67%NM 66.52%	2.98I 33.56%NM 33.48%	0.2%	2026-05-29 17:19
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82%	3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18%	0.4%	2026-05-29 17:19
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82%	3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18%	0.4%	2026-05-29 17:19
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82%	3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18%	0.4%	2026-05-29 17:19
Smarkets◎	1.47I 68.03%NM 66.82%	2.96I 33.78%NM 33.18%	1.8%	2026-05-29 17:20