Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hampshire v Surrey

Kickoff: 2026-05-29 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

43%

57%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hampshire (Local)

Prediction 42.72%2.34fair odd

EV +1.67%

Edge +0.703%

Kelly +1.21%

Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

39.75%42.60%43.15%43.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.142.232.202.3846.73%44.91%45.45%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Surrey (Visit)

Prediction 57.28%1.75fair odd

EV -4.34%

Edge -2.60%

Kelly -6.48%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

56.51%57.40%56.85%60.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.571.611.631.6763.69%61.94%61.35%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hampshire (Local): 42.72%; Surrey (Visit): 57.28%. For Hampshire (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.34. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.38, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.67%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Paddy Power🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV +1.67%E +0.703%K +1.21%G +0.020%	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -10.07%E -6.41%K -17.67%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-05-29 17:39
Coral🎯	2.37I 42.19%NM 39.85%EV +1.25%E +0.526%K +0.910%G +0.011%	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.15%EV -10.07%E -6.41%K -17.67%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-05-29 17:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	2.37I 42.19%NM 39.85%EV +1.25%E +0.526%K +0.910%G +0.011%	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.15%EV -10.07%E -6.41%K -17.67%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-05-29 17:39
SportsBet🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV +0.392%E +0.167%K +0.290%G +0.001%	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -10.07%E -6.41%K -17.67%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-29 17:39
TAB🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -3.88%E -1.72%K -3.10%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -7.21%E -4.45%K -11.62%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-29 17:39
Betway🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -3.88%E -1.72%K -3.10%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -10.07%E -6.41%K -17.67%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-05-29 17:39
BoyleSports🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.02%E -2.73%K -5.01%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.34%E -2.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-05-29 12:38
LiveScore Bet🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -6.02%E -2.73%K -5.01%G +0.000%	1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%EV -6.63%E -4.07%K -10.53%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-05-29 17:09
Casumo🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -6.02%E -2.73%K -5.01%G +0.000%	1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%EV -6.63%E -4.07%K -10.53%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-05-29 17:09
Unibet🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -6.02%E -2.73%K -5.01%G +0.000%	1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%EV -6.63%E -4.07%K -10.53%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-05-29 17:09
Virgin Bet🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -6.02%E -2.73%K -5.01%G +0.000%	1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%EV -6.63%E -4.07%K -10.53%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-05-29 17:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -6.02%E -2.73%K -5.01%G +0.000%	1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%EV -6.63%E -4.07%K -10.53%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-05-29 17:09
LeoVegas🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -6.02%E -2.73%K -5.01%G +0.000%	1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%EV -6.63%E -4.07%K -10.53%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-05-29 17:09
Grosvenor🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -6.02%E -2.73%K -5.01%G +0.000%	1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%EV -6.63%E -4.07%K -10.53%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-05-29 17:09
Unibet (SE)🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -6.02%E -2.73%K -5.01%G +0.000%	1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%EV -6.63%E -4.07%K -10.53%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-05-29 17:09
TABtouch🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -6.02%E -2.73%K -5.01%G +0.000%	1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%EV -6.63%E -4.07%K -10.53%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-05-29 17:09
ATG (SE)🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -6.02%E -2.73%K -5.01%G +0.000%	1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%EV -6.63%E -4.07%K -10.53%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-05-29 17:09
Bet Victor🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.02%E -2.73%K -5.01%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -8.35%E -5.22%K -13.92%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-05-29 17:39
Betr (AU)🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.02%E -2.73%K -5.01%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -8.35%E -5.22%K -13.92%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-05-29 17:38
Betsson🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -6.02%E -2.73%K -5.01%G +0.000%	1.58I 63.29%NM 58.20%EV -9.50%E -6.01%K -16.38%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-05-29 17:50
NordicBet🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -6.02%E -2.73%K -5.01%G +0.000%	1.58I 63.29%NM 58.20%EV -9.50%E -6.01%K -16.38%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-05-29 17:49
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.17I 46.08%NM 43.49%EV -7.30%E -3.36%K -6.24%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.51%EV -4.34%E -2.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-29 17:19
Pinnacle🎯	2.16I 46.30%NM 43.31%EV -7.72%E -3.58%K -6.66%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 56.69%EV -5.49%E -3.33%K -8.44%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-05-28 22:39
Marathon Bet🎯	2.14I 46.73%NM 43.24%EV -8.58%E -4.01%K -7.53%G +0.000%	1.63I 61.35%NM 56.76%EV -6.63%E -4.07%K -10.53%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-05-29 17:19

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16%	1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84%	0.5%	2026-05-29 17:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16%	1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84%	0.5%	2026-05-29 17:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16%	1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84%	0.5%	2026-05-29 17:50
Matchbook◎	2.38I 42.02%NM 41.38%	1.68I 59.52%NM 58.62%	1.5%	2026-05-29 17:50
Smarkets◎	2.32I 43.10%NM 42.29%	1.70I 58.82%NM 57.71%	1.9%	2026-05-29 17:50