The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Hampshire v Nottinghamshire

Kickoff: 2026-07-18 13:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hampshire (Local)

Prediction 55.22%1.81fair odd
EV -3.37%
Edge -1.92%
Kelly -4.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.23%55.79%55.03%59.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.691.681.7564.10%59.16%59.52%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nottinghamshire (Visit)

Prediction 44.78%2.23fair odd
EV +3.89%
Edge +1.68%
Kelly +2.95%
Growth +0.115%

assuming max odds 2.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.21%44.21%44.97%45.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.152.152.3248.78%46.56%46.51%43.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hampshire (Local): 55.22%; Nottinghamshire (Visit): 44.78%. For Nottinghamshire (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.23. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.32, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.89%.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle1.56I 64.10%NM 59.79%EV -13.86%E -8.88%K -24.75%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV +3.89%E +1.68%K +2.95%G +0.115%7.2%2026-07-18 13:20
Unibet1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.79%E -4.66%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.48%E -0.673%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 13:20
LiveScore Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.79%E -4.66%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.48%E -0.673%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 13:20
Casumo1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.79%E -4.66%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.48%E -0.673%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 13:20
Virgin Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.79%E -4.66%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.48%E -0.673%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 13:20
Grosvenor1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.79%E -4.66%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.48%E -0.673%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 13:20
LeoVegas (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.79%E -4.66%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.48%E -0.673%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 13:20
Unibet (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.79%E -4.66%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.48%E -0.673%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 13:20
TABtouch1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.79%E -4.66%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.48%E -0.673%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 13:20
ATG (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.79%E -4.66%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.48%E -0.673%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 13:20
Sky Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.79%E -4.66%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.48%E -0.673%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 13:20
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.79%E -4.66%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.48%E -0.673%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 13:25
BoyleSports1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.79%E -4.66%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.48%E -0.673%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 13:20
betfred_uk1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.79%E -4.66%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.48%E -0.673%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 13:20
888sport1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.13%E -3.61%K -8.76%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.72%E -1.73%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 13:20
William Hill1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.13%E -3.61%K -8.76%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.72%E -1.73%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 10:05
Betr (AU)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -8.89%E -5.39%K -13.68%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -3.72%E -1.73%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-18 13:20
Betway1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.37%E -1.92%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.96%E -2.84%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-18 13:35
Ladbrokes (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.47%E -2.59%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.96%E -2.84%K -5.42%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-18 13:35
Coral1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.47%E -2.59%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.96%E -2.84%K -5.42%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-18 13:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.47%E -2.59%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.96%E -2.84%K -5.42%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-18 13:35
Neds1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.03%E -2.92%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.96%E -2.84%K -5.42%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-18 13:35
Ladbrokes (AU)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.03%E -2.92%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.96%E -2.84%K -5.42%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-18 13:35
Unibet (UK)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.03%E -2.92%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.96%E -2.84%K -5.42%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-18 13:35
SportsBet1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.03%E -2.92%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.96%E -2.84%K -5.42%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-18 13:35
Betsson1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.03%E -2.92%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.96%E -2.84%K -5.42%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-18 13:40
NordicBet1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.03%E -2.92%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.96%E -2.84%K -5.42%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-18 13:40
Marathon Bet1.68I 59.52%NM 55.08%EV -7.23%E -4.31%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.92%EV -7.75%E -3.76%K -7.31%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-18 13:29
betano_uk1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -4.47%E -2.59%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -8.20%E -4.00%K -7.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-18 13:40
Bet Victor1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -4.47%E -2.59%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -8.20%E -4.00%K -7.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-18 13:35
TAB1.68I 59.52%NM 54.96%EV -7.23%E -4.31%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%EV -8.20%E -4.00%K -7.81%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-18 13:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.81I 55.25%NM 55.09%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.91%0.3%2026-07-18 13:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.81I 55.25%NM 55.09%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.91%0.3%2026-07-18 13:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78%0.6%2026-07-18 13:40
Matchbook1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78%0.6%2026-07-18 13:40
Smarkets1.76I 56.82%NM 55.10%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.90%3.1%2026-07-18 13:40