The School of Odds

Hampshire v Middlesex

Kickoff: 2026-07-08 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Hampshire (Local)

Prediction 65.96%1.52fair odd
EV -3.03%
Edge -2.06%
Kelly -6.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.88%65.88%65.94%68.13%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.381.411.411.4772%71%71%68%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Middlesex (Visit)

Prediction 34.04%2.94fair odd
EV +0.406%
Edge +0.138%
Kelly +0.208%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.87%34.12%34.06%36.12%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.602.812.802.9538%36%36%34%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
LiveScore Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -8.97%E -6.50%K -23.60%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV +0.406%E +0.138%K +0.208%G +0.001%6.4%2026-07-08 15:35
Casumo1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -8.97%E -6.50%K -23.60%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV +0.406%E +0.138%K +0.208%G +0.001%6.4%2026-07-08 15:35
Virgin Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -8.97%E -6.50%K -23.60%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV +0.406%E +0.138%K +0.208%G +0.001%6.4%2026-07-08 15:35
Unibet1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -8.97%E -6.50%K -23.60%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV +0.406%E +0.138%K +0.208%G +0.001%6.4%2026-07-08 15:35
Unibet (SE)1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -8.97%E -6.50%K -23.60%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV +0.406%E +0.138%K +0.208%G +0.001%6.4%2026-07-08 15:34
Grosvenor1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -8.97%E -6.50%K -23.60%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV +0.406%E +0.138%K +0.208%G +0.001%6.4%2026-07-08 15:34
LeoVegas (SE)1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -8.97%E -6.50%K -23.60%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV +0.406%E +0.138%K +0.208%G +0.001%6.4%2026-07-08 15:35
TABtouch1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -8.97%E -6.50%K -23.60%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV +0.406%E +0.138%K +0.208%G +0.001%6.4%2026-07-08 15:35
ATG (SE)1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -8.97%E -6.50%K -23.60%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV +0.406%E +0.138%K +0.208%G +0.001%6.4%2026-07-08 15:35
William Hill1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.65%E -5.46%K -19.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -1.30%E -0.447%K -0.682%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 04:50
BoyleSports1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -7.65%E -5.46%K -19.13%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -1.98%E -0.686%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-06 14:30
Pinnacle1.38I 72.46%NM 67.06%EV -8.97%E -6.50%K -23.60%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 32.94%EV -4.36%E -1.55%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-08 17:50
NordicBet1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.33%E -4.46%K -15.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -4.70%E -1.68%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-08 17:49
Betsson1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.33%E -4.46%K -15.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -4.70%E -1.68%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-08 17:50
TAB1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.33%E -4.46%K -15.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -4.70%E -1.68%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-08 17:54
Betr (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -7.65%E -5.46%K -19.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -4.70%E -1.68%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-08 17:50
Ladbrokes (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.01%E -3.48%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.40%E -2.33%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-08 17:45
Coral1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.01%E -3.48%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.40%E -2.33%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-08 17:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.01%E -3.48%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.40%E -2.33%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-08 17:44
Paddy Power1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.01%E -3.48%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.40%E -2.33%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-08 17:40
Sky Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.01%E -3.48%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.40%E -2.33%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-08 17:45
888sport1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.01%E -3.48%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.40%E -2.33%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-08 17:45
betfred_uk1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.01%E -3.48%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.40%E -2.33%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-08 17:45
Marathon Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 66.02%EV -7.65%E -5.46%K -19.13%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.98%EV -7.42%E -2.73%K -4.32%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-08 17:49
SportsBet1.44I 69.44%NM 65.30%EV -5.01%E -3.48%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 34.70%EV -7.76%E -2.86%K -4.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-08 17:55
Bet Victor1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.65%E -5.46%K -19.13%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.10%E -3.00%K -4.77%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-08 17:49
Unibet (UK)1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -4.35%E -3.00%K -9.67%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -9.80%E -3.70%K -5.94%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-08 17:49
Ladbrokes (AU)1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -3.03%E -2.06%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -11.51%E -4.43%K -7.19%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-08 17:50
Neds1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -3.03%E -2.06%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -11.51%E -4.43%K -7.19%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-08 17:50
Betway1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -4.35%E -3.00%K -9.67%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -11.51%E -4.43%K -7.19%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-08 17:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.48I 67.57%NM 67.33%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.67%0.4%2026-07-08 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.48I 67.57%NM 67.33%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.67%0.4%2026-07-08 17:55
Matchbook1.48I 67.57%NM 67.33%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.67%0.4%2026-07-08 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.48I 67.57%NM 66.96%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.04%0.9%2026-07-08 17:55
Smarkets1.45I 68.97%NM 67.12%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.88%2.7%2026-07-08 17:55