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Hampshire v Essex
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Hampshire (Local)
Prediction 52.89%1.89fair odd
EV -2.67%
Edge -1.45%
Kelly -3.18%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.84
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.80%53.06%52.63%57.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.781.781.8460.61%56.22%56.18%54.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Essex (Visit)
Prediction 47.11%2.12fair odd
EV +4.10%
Edge +1.86%
Kelly +3.39%
Growth +0.139%
assuming max odds 2.21
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.75%46.94%47.37%49.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.012.002.2152.63%49.84%50.00%45.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hampshire (Local): 52.89%; Essex (Visit): 47.11%. For Essex (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.12. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.21, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.10%.
Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.25%EV -12.72%E -7.71%K -19.58%G +0.000% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 42.75%EV +4.10%E +1.86%K +3.39%G +0.139% | 5.9% | 2026-07-15 10:58 |
| William Hill | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -11.67%E -6.99%K -17.41%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV +3.63%E +1.65%K +3.03%G +0.110% | 5.3% | 2026-07-15 12:29 |
| NordicBet | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -5.85%E -3.29%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -3.43%E -1.67%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-15 15:15 |
| Betsson | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -5.85%E -3.29%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -3.43%E -1.67%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-15 15:15 |
| SportsBet | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.79%E -2.66%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.79%E -2.89%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-15 15:05 |
| Sky Bet | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.79%E -2.66%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.79%E -2.89%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-15 15:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.79%E -2.66%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.79%E -2.89%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-15 15:15 |
| Coral | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.79%E -2.66%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.79%E -2.89%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-15 15:05 |
| Paddy Power | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.79%E -2.66%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.79%E -2.89%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-15 15:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.79%E -2.66%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.79%E -2.89%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-15 15:15 |
| betfred_uk | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.79%E -2.66%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.79%E -2.89%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-15 15:08 |
| 888sport | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.79%E -2.66%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.79%E -2.89%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-15 15:09 |
| Betway | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.79%E -2.66%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.79%E -2.89%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-15 15:14 |
| TAB | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.79%E -2.66%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.79%E -2.89%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-15 15:19 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -5.85%E -3.29%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -5.79%E -2.89%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-15 15:05 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -5.85%E -3.29%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -5.79%E -2.89%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-15 15:05 |
| Casumo | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -5.85%E -3.29%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -5.79%E -2.89%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-15 15:05 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -5.85%E -3.29%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -5.79%E -2.89%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-15 15:05 |
| Grosvenor | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -5.85%E -3.29%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -5.79%E -2.89%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-15 15:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -5.85%E -3.29%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -5.79%E -2.89%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-15 15:05 |
| Unibet | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -5.85%E -3.29%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -5.79%E -2.89%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-15 15:05 |
| TABtouch | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -5.85%E -3.29%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -5.79%E -2.89%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-15 15:05 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -5.85%E -3.29%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -5.79%E -2.89%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-15 15:05 |
| betano_uk | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -7.43%E -4.25%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -5.79%E -2.89%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-15 15:18 |
| Bet Victor | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -7.43%E -4.25%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -5.79%E -2.89%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-15 15:13 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -7.43%E -4.25%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -5.79%E -2.89%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-15 15:15 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.49%EV -8.49%E -4.91%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 46.51%EV -6.26%E -3.15%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-15 15:15 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -4.79%E -2.66%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -6.73%E -3.40%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-15 15:14 |
| Neds | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.13%EV -4.79%E -2.66%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%EV -7.67%E -3.91%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-15 15:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.13%EV -4.79%E -2.66%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%EV -7.67%E -3.91%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-15 15:15 |
| BoyleSports | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -4.79%E -2.66%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -10.03%E -5.25%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-15 15:09 |
| Pinnacle | 1.84I 54.35%NM 50.80%EV -2.67%E -1.45%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.20%EV -10.50%E -5.53%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-15 15:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.87% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 46.13% | 0.4% | 2026-07-15 15:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50% | 0.5% | 2026-07-15 15:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50% | 0.5% | 2026-07-15 15:20 |
| Matchbook | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.63% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.37% | 0.8% | 2026-07-15 15:24 |
| Smarkets | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.81% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.19% | 2.1% | 2026-07-15 15:25 |