The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Gloucestershire v Birmingham Bears

Kickoff: 2026-05-22 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gloucestershire (Local)

Prediction 46.17%2.17fair odd
EV -3.03%
Edge -1.45%
Kelly -2.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.30%46.17%46.11%48.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.042.052.1051.28%49.08%48.78%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Birmingham Bears (Visit)

Prediction 53.83%1.86fair odd
EV -2.04%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -2.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.00%53.83%53.89%55.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.751.751.8259.88%57.31%57.14%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gloucestershire (Local): 46.17%; Birmingham Bears (Visit): 53.83%. For Birmingham Bears (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.86. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.82, with an expected value of -2.04%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.03%E -1.45%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.88%E -3.98%K -9.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-22 17:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -3.03%E -1.45%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -8.50%E -5.00%K -12.14%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-22 17:50
TAB🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -3.03%E -1.45%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -8.50%E -5.00%K -12.14%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-22 17:50
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -3.03%E -1.45%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -10.11%E -6.05%K -15.09%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-22 17:50
Unibet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.34%E -2.61%K -5.09%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.80%E -3.32%K -7.74%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-22 17:10
TABtouch🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.34%E -2.61%K -5.09%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.80%E -3.32%K -7.74%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-22 17:10
Casumo🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.34%E -2.61%K -5.09%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.80%E -3.32%K -7.74%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-22 17:10
Grosvenor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.34%E -2.61%K -5.09%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.80%E -3.32%K -7.74%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-22 17:10
Virgin Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.34%E -2.61%K -5.09%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.80%E -3.32%K -7.74%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-22 17:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.34%E -2.61%K -5.09%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.80%E -3.32%K -7.74%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-22 17:10
LeoVegas🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.34%E -2.61%K -5.09%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.80%E -3.32%K -7.74%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-22 17:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.34%E -2.61%K -5.09%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.80%E -3.32%K -7.74%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-22 17:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.34%E -2.61%K -5.09%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.80%E -3.32%K -7.74%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-22 17:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.34%E -2.61%K -5.09%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.80%E -3.32%K -7.74%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-22 17:10
NordicBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%EV -5.34%E -2.61%K -5.09%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.96%EV -9.57%E -5.70%K -14.08%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-22 17:50
Betsson🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%EV -5.34%E -2.61%K -5.09%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.96%EV -9.57%E -5.70%K -14.08%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-22 17:50
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -5.34%E -2.61%K -5.09%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -10.11%E -6.05%K -15.09%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-22 17:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.65%E -3.83%K -7.65%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.11%E -1.73%K -3.89%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-22 00:10
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.65%E -3.83%K -7.65%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.11%E -1.73%K -3.89%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-22 00:09
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.65%E -3.83%K -7.65%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.11%E -1.73%K -3.89%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-21 19:39
SportsBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -8.58%E -4.33%K -8.75%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -2.04%E -1.12%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-22 17:50
Pinnacle🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.59%EV -9.50%E -4.85%K -9.89%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.41%EV -4.19%E -2.35%K -5.37%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-22 06:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.17%EV -9.50%E -4.85%K -9.89%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.83%EV -5.80%E -3.32%K -7.74%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-22 17:10
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.96%E -5.11%K -10.48%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.11%E -1.73%K -3.89%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-22 17:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 43.35%1.76I 56.82%NM 56.65%0.3%2026-05-22 17:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56%1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44%0.7%2026-05-22 17:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 42.93%1.73I 57.80%NM 57.07%1.3%2026-05-22 17:50
Smarkets◎2.18I 45.87%NM 44.25%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.75%3.7%2026-05-22 17:50