Language:English
Essex v Sussex
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Essex (Local)
Prediction 40.83%2.45fair odd
EV +3.72%
Edge +1.46%
Kelly +2.41%
Growth +0.090%
assuming max odds 2.54
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.13%40.81%40.83%41.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.342.302.5444.44%42.77%43.48%39.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sussex (Visit)
Prediction 59.17%1.69fair odd
EV -4.15%
Edge -2.56%
Kelly -6.70%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.62
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.67%59.19%59.17%62.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.581.601.6266.67%63.36%62.50%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Essex (Local): 40.83%; Sussex (Visit): 59.17%. For Essex (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.45. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.54, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.72%.
Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.13%EV +3.72%E +1.46%K +2.41%G +0.090% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.87%EV -11.25%E -7.50%K -22.50%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +2.08%E +0.834%K +1.39%G +0.029% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -9.48%E -6.19%K -17.88%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-22 17:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +2.08%E +0.834%K +1.39%G +0.029% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -9.48%E -6.19%K -17.88%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-22 17:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +2.08%E +0.834%K +1.39%G +0.029% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -9.48%E -6.19%K -17.88%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-22 17:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -4.04%E -1.72%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -8.29%E -5.35%K -15.08%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-22 17:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.08%E -2.64%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.15%E -2.56%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-22 11:29 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.08%E -2.64%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.15%E -2.56%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-20 14:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.08%E -2.64%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.33%E -3.33%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-22 17:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.08%E -2.64%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.33%E -3.33%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-22 17:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.08%E -2.64%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.33%E -3.33%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-22 17:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.08%E -2.64%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.33%E -3.33%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-22 17:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.08%E -2.64%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.33%E -3.33%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-22 17:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.08%E -2.64%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.33%E -3.33%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-22 17:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.08%E -2.64%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.33%E -3.33%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-22 17:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.08%E -2.64%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.33%E -3.33%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-22 17:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.08%E -2.64%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.33%E -3.33%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-22 17:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.08%E -2.64%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.33%E -3.33%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-22 17:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.08%E -2.64%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.33%E -3.33%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-22 17:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.08%E -2.64%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -7.11%E -4.53%K -12.47%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -6.08%E -2.64%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -8.29%E -5.35%K -15.08%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-22 17:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -6.08%E -2.64%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -8.29%E -5.35%K -15.08%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-22 17:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.12%E -3.61%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.11%E -4.53%K -12.47%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-22 17:39 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10% | 0.4% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91% | 0.7% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91% | 0.7% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91% | 0.7% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.95% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.05% | 3.4% | 2026-05-22 17:50 |