The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Durham v Lancashire

Kickoff: 2026-06-09 17:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Durham (Local)

Prediction 46.49%2.15fair odd
EV -2.38%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -2.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.03%46.39%46.38%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.992.062.102.1050.25%48.47%47.62%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lancashire (Visit)

Prediction 53.51%1.87fair odd
EV -3.68%
Edge -2.04%
Kelly -4.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.05%53.61%53.62%54.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.731.721.8058.82%57.78%58.14%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Durham (Local): 46.49%; Lancashire (Visit): 53.51%. For Durham (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.15. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.10, with an expected value of -2.38%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%EV -2.38%E -1.13%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%EV -3.68%E -2.04%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.2%2026-06-09 17:19
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.38%E -1.13%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.42%E -4.29%K -10.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-09 17:10
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.38%E -1.13%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.42%E -4.29%K -10.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-09 17:19
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.38%E -1.13%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.42%E -4.29%K -10.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-09 17:09
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -2.38%E -1.13%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -7.96%E -4.63%K -11.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-09 17:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -2.38%E -1.13%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -7.96%E -4.63%K -11.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-09 17:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -2.38%E -1.13%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -7.96%E -4.63%K -11.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-09 17:10
Grosvenor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -2.38%E -1.13%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -7.96%E -4.63%K -11.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-09 17:09
Casumo🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -2.38%E -1.13%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -7.96%E -4.63%K -11.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-09 17:09
Unibet (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -2.38%E -1.13%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -7.96%E -4.63%K -11.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-09 17:09
LeoVegas🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -2.38%E -1.13%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -7.96%E -4.63%K -11.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-09 17:09
TABtouch🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -2.38%E -1.13%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -7.96%E -4.63%K -11.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-09 17:09
Unibet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -2.38%E -1.13%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -7.96%E -4.63%K -11.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-09 17:09
Virgin Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -2.38%E -1.13%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -7.96%E -4.63%K -11.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-09 17:09
ATG (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -2.38%E -1.13%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -7.96%E -4.63%K -11.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-09 17:10
TAB🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.70%E -2.29%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.35%E -3.63%K -8.47%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-09 17:20
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -4.70%E -2.29%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -9.03%E -5.31%K -12.90%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-09 17:09
BetOnline.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.03%E -3.51%K -7.03%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.28%E -2.98%K -6.86%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-09 14:59
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -7.03%E -3.51%K -7.03%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.35%E -3.63%K -8.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-09 15:09
Bet Victor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.03%E -3.51%K -7.03%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.42%E -4.29%K -10.17%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-09 17:09
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.03%E -3.51%K -7.03%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.42%E -4.29%K -10.17%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-09 17:20
Betsson🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -7.03%E -3.51%K -7.03%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -7.96%E -4.63%K -11.05%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-09 17:10
NordicBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -7.03%E -3.51%K -7.03%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -7.96%E -4.63%K -11.05%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-09 17:10
Pinnacle🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 46.93%EV -7.49%E -3.76%K -7.57%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.07%EV -5.82%E -3.31%K -7.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-09 17:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 46.51%EV -7.49%E -3.76%K -7.57%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.49%EV -7.42%E -4.29%K -10.17%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-09 17:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.70%1.77I 56.50%NM 56.30%0.4%2026-06-09 17:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94%0.4%2026-06-09 17:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78%1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22%0.6%2026-06-09 17:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78%1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22%0.6%2026-06-09 17:20
Smarkets◎2.20I 45.45%NM 44.30%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.70%2.6%2026-06-09 17:20