The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Derbyshire v Nottinghamshire

Kickoff: 2026-05-29 17:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Derbyshire (Local)

Prediction 44.97%2.22fair odd
EV -1.06%
Edge -0.482%
Kelly -0.883%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.86%45.01%45.17%46.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.122.122.2050.00%47.09%47.17%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nottinghamshire (Visit)

Prediction 55.03%1.82fair odd
EV -3.70%
Edge -2.12%
Kelly -4.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.33%54.99%54.83%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.691.671.7560.61%59.24%59.70%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Derbyshire (Local): 44.97%; Nottinghamshire (Visit): 55.03%. For Derbyshire (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.22. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.20, with an expected value of -1.06%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -1.06%E -0.482%K -0.883%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -9.20%E -5.58%K -14.16%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-29 02:59
Casumo🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -1.06%E -0.482%K -0.883%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -9.20%E -5.58%K -14.16%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-29 02:59
Grosvenor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -1.06%E -0.482%K -0.883%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -9.20%E -5.58%K -14.16%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-29 02:59
Virgin Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -1.06%E -0.482%K -0.883%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -9.20%E -5.58%K -14.16%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-29 02:59
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -1.06%E -0.482%K -0.883%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -9.20%E -5.58%K -14.16%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-29 02:59
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -1.06%E -0.482%K -0.883%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -9.20%E -5.58%K -14.16%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-29 02:59
LeoVegas🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -1.06%E -0.482%K -0.883%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -9.20%E -5.58%K -14.16%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-29 02:59
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -1.06%E -0.482%K -0.883%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -9.20%E -5.58%K -14.16%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-29 02:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -1.06%E -0.482%K -0.883%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -9.20%E -5.58%K -14.16%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-29 02:59
ATG (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -1.06%E -0.482%K -0.883%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -9.20%E -5.58%K -14.16%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-29 02:59
BetOnline.ag🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 44.24%EV -4.21%E -1.98%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.76%EV -7.00%E -4.14%K -10.15%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-29 17:19
Pinnacle🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 43.80%EV -4.21%E -1.98%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.20%EV -8.65%E -5.21%K -13.11%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-29 17:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 43.88%EV -5.11%E -2.42%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.12%EV -9.20%E -5.58%K -14.16%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-29 17:07
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.56%E -2.65%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.80%E -2.78%K -6.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-29 17:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.56%E -2.65%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.80%E -2.78%K -6.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-29 17:09
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.56%E -2.65%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.80%E -2.78%K -6.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-29 17:09
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.56%E -2.65%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.80%E -2.78%K -6.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-29 17:09
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.56%E -2.65%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.35%E -3.11%K -7.43%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-29 17:09
TAB🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.81%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.70%E -2.12%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-29 17:18
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.81%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.45%E -3.80%K -9.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-29 17:09
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -10.05%E -5.03%K -10.05%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -3.70%E -2.12%K -4.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-29 17:19
Bet Victor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -10.05%E -5.03%K -10.05%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -4.80%E -2.78%K -6.58%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-29 17:18
NordicBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -10.05%E -5.03%K -10.05%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -5.35%E -3.11%K -7.43%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-29 17:19
Betsson🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -10.05%E -5.03%K -10.05%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -5.35%E -3.11%K -7.43%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-29 17:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 45.77%1.84I 54.35%NM 54.23%0.2%2026-05-29 17:19
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50%1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50%0.5%2026-05-29 17:19
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.16I 46.30%NM 46.00%1.84I 54.35%NM 54.00%0.6%2026-05-29 17:19
Matchbook◎2.16I 46.30%NM 46.00%1.84I 54.35%NM 54.00%0.6%2026-05-29 17:19
Smarkets◎2.12I 47.17%NM 46.19%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.81%2.1%2026-05-29 17:20