The School of Odds
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Birmingham Bears v Northamptonshire

Kickoff: 2026-05-31 13:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Birmingham Bears (Local)

Prediction 43.37%2.31fair odd
EV -2.41%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -1.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.86%43.34%43.42%45.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.182.202.2547.62%45.85%45.56%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Northamptonshire (Visit)

Prediction 56.63%1.77fair odd
EV -2.04%
Edge -1.18%
Kelly -2.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.83%56.66%56.58%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.651.621.7362.50%60.65%61.73%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Birmingham Bears (Local): 43.37%; Northamptonshire (Visit): 56.63%. For Northamptonshire (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.77. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.73, with an expected value of -2.04%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Virgin Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -2.41%E -1.07%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -8.27%E -5.10%K -13.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-31 13:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -2.41%E -1.07%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -8.27%E -5.10%K -13.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-31 13:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -2.41%E -1.07%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -8.27%E -5.10%K -13.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-31 13:10
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -2.41%E -1.07%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -8.27%E -5.10%K -13.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-31 13:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -2.41%E -1.07%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -8.27%E -5.10%K -13.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-31 13:10
Casumo🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -2.41%E -1.07%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -8.27%E -5.10%K -13.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-31 13:10
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -2.41%E -1.07%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -8.27%E -5.10%K -13.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-31 13:10
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -2.41%E -1.07%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -8.27%E -5.10%K -13.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-31 13:09
TABtouch🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -2.41%E -1.07%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -8.27%E -5.10%K -13.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-31 13:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -2.41%E -1.07%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -8.27%E -5.10%K -13.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-31 13:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 42.75%EV -4.14%E -1.88%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.25%EV -6.57%E -3.98%K -10.10%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-31 11:00
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.58%E -2.08%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.43%E -3.25%K -8.11%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-31 13:09
Marathon Bet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 42.22%EV -5.01%E -2.29%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.78%EV -9.40%E -5.87%K -15.66%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-31 13:20
TAB🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.75%E -3.14%K -5.87%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -4.87%E -2.90%K -7.16%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-31 10:30
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.75%E -3.14%K -5.87%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.57%E -3.98%K -10.10%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-31 13:10
Pinnacle🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.75%E -3.14%K -5.87%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.57%E -3.98%K -10.10%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-31 13:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -8.92%E -4.25%K -8.10%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.04%E -1.18%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-31 13:20
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -8.92%E -4.25%K -8.10%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.04%E -1.18%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-31 13:20
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -8.92%E -4.25%K -8.10%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.04%E -1.18%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-31 13:20
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -8.92%E -4.25%K -8.10%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -2.60%E -1.51%K -3.61%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-31 13:20
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.92%E -4.25%K -8.10%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.43%E -3.25%K -8.11%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-31 13:00
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -8.92%E -4.25%K -8.10%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -6.57%E -3.98%K -10.10%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-31 13:20
Betsson🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.55%EV -8.92%E -4.25%K -8.10%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -8.27%E -5.10%K -13.33%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-31 13:10
NordicBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.55%EV -8.92%E -4.25%K -8.10%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -8.27%E -5.10%K -13.33%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-31 13:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.70%1.77I 56.50%NM 56.30%0.4%2026-05-31 13:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.70%1.77I 56.50%NM 56.30%0.4%2026-05-31 13:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94%0.4%2026-05-31 13:20
Matchbook◎2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94%0.4%2026-05-31 13:20
Smarkets◎2.24I 44.64%NM 43.72%1.74I 57.47%NM 56.28%2.1%2026-05-31 13:20