Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Birmingham Bears v Glamorgan

Kickoff: 2026-07-10 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

58%

42%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Birmingham Bears (Local)

Prediction 57.98%1.72fair odd

EV +15.38%

Edge +7.73%

Kelly +15.53%

Growth +2.39%

assuming max odds 1.99

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

46.51%56.16%57.94%58.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.601.631.611.9962.50%61.17%62.11%50.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Glamorgan (Visit)

Prediction 42.02%2.38fair odd

EV -3.35%

Edge -1.46%

Kelly -2.58%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

41.03%43.84%42.06%53.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.732.232.252.3057.80%44.82%44.44%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Marathon Bet	1.99I 50.25%NM 46.51%EV +15.38%E +7.73%K +15.53%G +2.39%	1.73I 57.80%NM 53.49%EV -27.30%E -15.78%K -37.40%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-07-10 17:49
William Hill	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV +4.36%E +2.42%K +5.45%G +0.238%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -15.96%E -7.98%K -15.96%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-07-10 13:19
Pinnacle	1.76I 56.82%NM 53.07%EV +2.04%E +1.16%K +2.69%G +0.055%	1.99I 50.25%NM 46.93%EV -16.38%E -8.23%K -16.55%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-07-10 17:55
Neds	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.33%E -2.63%K -6.67%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.45%E -2.42%K -4.36%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-10 17:49
Ladbrokes (AU)	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.33%E -2.63%K -6.67%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.45%E -2.42%K -4.36%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-10 17:49
Unibet (UK)	1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -5.49%E -3.37%K -8.72%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.45%E -2.42%K -4.36%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-10 17:49
Sky Bet	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.07%E -3.75%K -9.80%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.45%E -2.42%K -4.36%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-10 17:49
Paddy Power	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.07%E -3.75%K -9.80%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.45%E -2.42%K -4.36%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-10 17:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.07%E -3.75%K -9.80%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.45%E -2.42%K -4.36%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-10 17:49
betfred_uk	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.07%E -3.75%K -9.80%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.45%E -2.42%K -4.36%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-10 17:55
TAB	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.07%E -3.75%K -9.80%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.45%E -2.42%K -4.36%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-10 17:55
BoyleSports	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.07%E -3.75%K -9.80%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.45%E -2.42%K -4.36%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-10 17:45
888sport	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.65%E -4.13%K -10.91%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -3.35%E -1.46%K -2.58%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-07-10 17:55
SportsBet	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.51%EV -6.65%E -4.13%K -10.91%G +0.000%	2.27I 44.05%NM 41.49%EV -4.61%E -2.03%K -3.63%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-10 17:49
Coral	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -6.65%E -4.13%K -10.91%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -5.45%E -2.42%K -4.36%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-07-10 17:49
Ladbrokes (UK)	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -6.65%E -4.13%K -10.91%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -5.45%E -2.42%K -4.36%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-07-10 17:49
NordicBet	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -7.23%E -4.52%K -12.05%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -3.35%E -1.46%K -2.58%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-10 17:55
Betsson	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -7.23%E -4.52%K -12.05%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -3.35%E -1.46%K -2.58%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-10 17:55
Unibet (SE)	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -7.23%E -4.52%K -12.05%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -3.35%E -1.46%K -2.58%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-10 17:44
Virgin Bet	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -7.23%E -4.52%K -12.05%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -3.35%E -1.46%K -2.58%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-10 17:44
LeoVegas (SE)	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -7.23%E -4.52%K -12.05%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -3.35%E -1.46%K -2.58%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-10 17:44
Grosvenor	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -7.23%E -4.52%K -12.05%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -3.35%E -1.46%K -2.58%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-10 17:44
LiveScore Bet	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -7.23%E -4.52%K -12.05%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -3.35%E -1.46%K -2.58%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-10 17:45
Casumo	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -7.23%E -4.52%K -12.05%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -3.35%E -1.46%K -2.58%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-10 17:44
TABtouch	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -7.23%E -4.52%K -12.05%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -3.35%E -1.46%K -2.58%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-10 17:44
Unibet	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -7.23%E -4.52%K -12.05%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -3.35%E -1.46%K -2.58%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-10 17:45
ATG (SE)	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -7.23%E -4.52%K -12.05%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -3.35%E -1.46%K -2.58%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-10 17:44
Bet Victor	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.23%E -4.52%K -12.05%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.56%E -3.43%K -6.30%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-07-10 17:53
Betway	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.23%E -4.52%K -12.05%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.56%E -3.43%K -6.30%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-07-10 17:49
Betr (AU)	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.23%E -4.52%K -12.05%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.56%E -3.43%K -6.30%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-07-10 17:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)	1.59I 62.89%NM 62.23%	2.62I 38.17%NM 37.77%	1.1%	2026-07-10 17:55
Matchbook	1.57I 63.69%NM 62.88%	2.66I 37.59%NM 37.12%	1.3%	2026-07-10 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)	1.56I 64.10%NM 63.03%	2.66I 37.59%NM 36.97%	1.7%	2026-07-10 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)	1.56I 64.10%NM 63.03%	2.66I 37.59%NM 36.97%	1.7%	2026-07-10 17:55
Smarkets	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.06%	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.94%	6.2%	2026-07-10 17:55