The School of Odds
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Rawalpindiz v Islamabad United

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 14:40 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rawalpindiz (Local)

Prediction 43.24%2.31fair odd
EV -0.541%
Edge -0.235%
Kelly -0.416%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.03%43.24%43.24%43.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.272.302.3047.62%44.14%43.48%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Islamabad United (Visit)

Prediction 56.76%1.76fair odd
EV -6.35%
Edge -3.85%
Kelly -9.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.76%56.76%56.76%58.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.621.621.6562.50%61.82%61.73%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rawalpindiz (Local): 43.24%; Islamabad United (Visit): 56.76%. For Rawalpindiz (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.31. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.30, with an expected value of -0.541%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -0.541%E -0.235%K -0.416%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -8.05%E -4.97%K -12.99%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-04 14:34
Casumo🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -0.541%E -0.235%K -0.416%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -8.05%E -4.97%K -12.99%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-04 14:35
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -0.541%E -0.235%K -0.416%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -8.05%E -4.97%K -12.99%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-04 14:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -0.541%E -0.235%K -0.416%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -8.05%E -4.97%K -12.99%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-04 14:35
Grosvenor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -0.541%E -0.235%K -0.416%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -8.05%E -4.97%K -12.99%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-04 14:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -0.541%E -0.235%K -0.416%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -8.05%E -4.97%K -12.99%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-04 14:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -0.541%E -0.235%K -0.416%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -8.05%E -4.97%K -12.99%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-04 14:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -0.541%E -0.235%K -0.416%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -8.05%E -4.97%K -12.99%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-04 14:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -0.541%E -0.235%K -0.416%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -8.05%E -4.97%K -12.99%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-04 14:30
TABtouch🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -0.541%E -0.235%K -0.416%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -9.19%E -5.74%K -15.32%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-04 14:34
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.70%E -1.20%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.35%E -3.85%K -9.77%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 14:34
NordicBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -9.19%E -4.38%K -8.35%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -9.19%E -5.74%K -15.32%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-04 14:30
Betsson🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -9.19%E -4.38%K -8.35%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -9.19%E -5.74%K -15.32%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-04 14:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46%1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54%0.5%2026-04-04 14:29
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.57%1.72I 58.14%NM 57.43%1.2%2026-04-04 14:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 42.64%1.71I 58.48%NM 57.36%2.0%2026-04-04 14:35