The School of Odds

Zimbabwe v Bangladesh

Kickoff: 2026-07-09 07:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Zimbabwe (Local)

Prediction 41.71%2.40fair odd
EV +0.109%
Edge +0.045%
Kelly +0.078%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.49%41.69%41.87%45.17%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.102.302.302.4047.62%43.39%43.48%41.67%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Bangladesh (Visit)

Prediction 58.29%1.72fair odd
EV +0.838%
Edge +0.484%
Kelly +1.15%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.83%58.31%58.13%60.51%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.531.601.611.7365.36%62.37%62.11%57.80%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
William Hill2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -12.40%E -5.91%K -11.28%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV +0.838%E +0.484%K +1.15%G +0.010%5.4%2026-07-09 05:40
Pinnacle2.28I 43.86%NM 42.28%EV -4.90%E -2.15%K -3.83%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.72%EV -2.66%E -1.59%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-09 07:15
BoyleSports2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.23%E -3.74%K -6.86%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.66%E -1.59%K -3.97%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-06 15:54
GTbets2.18I 45.87%NM 43.38%EV -9.07%E -4.16%K -7.68%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.62%EV -2.66%E -1.59%K -3.97%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-09 07:05
DraftKings2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -10.32%E -4.80%K -8.97%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -2.66%E -1.59%K -3.97%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-09 07:03
Everygame2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.15%E -2.73%K -4.92%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.57%E -3.44%K -8.99%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-09 07:10
LeoVegas (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.06%E -1.77%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.16%E -3.82%K -10.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-09 07:05
Unibet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.06%E -1.77%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.16%E -3.82%K -10.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-09 07:05
Unibet (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.06%E -1.77%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.16%E -3.82%K -10.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-09 07:05
Grosvenor2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.06%E -1.77%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.16%E -3.82%K -10.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-09 07:05
Casumo2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.06%E -1.77%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.16%E -3.82%K -10.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-09 07:05
LiveScore Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.06%E -1.77%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.16%E -3.82%K -10.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-09 07:05
Virgin Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.06%E -1.77%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.16%E -3.82%K -10.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-09 07:05
TABtouch2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.06%E -1.77%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.16%E -3.82%K -10.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-09 07:05
ATG (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.06%E -1.77%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.16%E -3.82%K -10.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-09 07:05
TAB2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.06%E -1.77%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.74%E -4.21%K -11.23%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-09 07:20
PlayUp2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV +0.109%E +0.045%K +0.078%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -7.91%E -5.00%K -13.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 07:14
Marathon Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 41.47%EV -6.98%E -3.13%K -5.68%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.53%EV -7.91%E -5.00%K -13.63%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-09 07:25
PointsBet (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV +0.109%E +0.045%K +0.078%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -8.49%E -5.41%K -14.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-09 07:14
Bet Right2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV +0.109%E +0.045%K +0.078%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -8.49%E -5.41%K -14.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-09 07:15
Sky Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.725%E -0.305%K -0.525%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.49%E -5.41%K -14.89%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-09 07:10
Paddy Power2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.725%E -0.305%K -0.525%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.49%E -5.41%K -14.89%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-09 07:10
Coral2.37I 42.19%NM 39.85%EV -1.14%E -0.482%K -0.834%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.15%EV -8.49%E -5.41%K -14.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-09 07:10
Ladbrokes (UK)2.37I 42.19%NM 39.85%EV -1.14%E -0.482%K -0.834%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.15%EV -8.49%E -5.41%K -14.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-09 07:10
Ladbrokes (AU)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -1.98%E -0.841%K -1.46%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -8.49%E -5.41%K -14.89%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-09 07:10
Neds2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -1.98%E -0.841%K -1.46%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -8.49%E -5.41%K -14.89%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-09 07:10
Betr (AU)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -1.98%E -0.841%K -1.46%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -8.49%E -5.41%K -14.89%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-09 07:15
SportsBet2.39I 41.84%NM 39.49%EV -0.308%E -0.129%K -0.222%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.51%EV -9.07%E -5.81%K -16.20%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-09 07:15
Bet Victor2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -4.06%E -1.77%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -10.82%E -7.07%K -20.41%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-09 07:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.52I 39.68%NM 39.57%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.43%0.3%2026-07-09 07:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.52I 39.68%NM 39.57%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.43%0.3%2026-07-09 07:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58%0.7%2026-07-09 07:25