The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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USA v UAE

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

USA (Local)

Prediction 68.39%1.46fair odd
EV -4.94%
Edge -3.55%
Kelly -12.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.97%68.39%68.39%71.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.351.351.3975.19%74.03%74.07%71.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UAE (Visit)

Prediction 31.61%3.16fair odd
EV +4.31%
Edge +1.31%
Kelly +1.88%
Growth +0.081%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.73%31.61%31.61%32.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.113.103.3033.90%32.14%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: USA (Local): 68.39%; UAE (Visit): 31.61%. For UAE (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.16. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.31%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Neds🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -9.04%E -6.80%K -27.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +4.31%E +1.31%K +1.88%G +0.081%5.5%2026-10-11 14:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -9.04%E -6.80%K -27.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +4.31%E +1.31%K +1.88%G +0.081%5.5%2026-10-11 14:55
Unibet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -7.67%E -5.68%K -21.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -2.01%E -0.648%K -0.956%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-11 08:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -7.67%E -5.68%K -21.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -2.01%E -0.648%K -0.956%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-11 08:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -7.67%E -5.68%K -21.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -2.01%E -0.648%K -0.956%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-11 08:45
Casumo🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -7.67%E -5.68%K -21.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -2.01%E -0.648%K -0.956%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-11 08:45
Grosvenor🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -7.67%E -5.68%K -21.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -2.01%E -0.648%K -0.956%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-11 08:45
TABtouch🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -7.67%E -5.68%K -21.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -2.01%E -0.648%K -0.956%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-11 08:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -7.67%E -5.68%K -21.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -2.01%E -0.648%K -0.956%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-11 08:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -7.67%E -5.68%K -21.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -2.01%E -0.648%K -0.956%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-11 08:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -7.67%E -5.68%K -21.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -2.01%E -0.648%K -0.956%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-11 08:45
BoyleSports🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.99%E -5.14%K -19.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.17%E -1.72%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-11 14:45
DraftKings🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -4.94%E -3.55%K -12.66%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -6.75%E -2.29%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-10 14:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.