The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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South Africa v Australia

Kickoff: 2026-09-24 08:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

South Africa (Local)

Prediction 40.61%2.46fair odd
EV -0.502%
Edge -0.205%
Kelly -0.347%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.75%40.86%40.16%43.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.352.372.4546.51%42.64%42.19%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Australia (Visit)

Prediction 59.39%1.68fair odd
EV -0.821%
Edge -0.491%
Kelly -1.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.28%59.14%59.84%61.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.581.571.6765.36%63.15%63.69%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: South Africa (Local): 40.61%; Australia (Visit): 59.39%. For South Africa (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.46. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.45, with an expected value of -0.502%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
TAB🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -0.502%E -0.205%K -0.347%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -7.95%E -5.13%K -14.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-24 07:55
TABtouch🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -1.31%E -0.541%K -0.919%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -7.35%E -4.71%K -13.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-24 07:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -1.31%E -0.541%K -0.919%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -7.35%E -4.71%K -13.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-24 07:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -1.31%E -0.541%K -0.919%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -7.35%E -4.71%K -13.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-24 07:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -1.31%E -0.541%K -0.919%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -7.35%E -4.71%K -13.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-24 07:55
PlayUp🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -2.53%E -1.06%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -6.17%E -3.90%K -10.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-24 07:55
Unibet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.53%E -1.06%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.76%E -4.31%K -11.86%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-24 07:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.53%E -1.06%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.76%E -4.31%K -11.86%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-24 07:55
Casumo🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.53%E -1.06%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.35%E -4.71%K -13.13%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-24 07:50
Grosvenor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.53%E -1.06%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.35%E -4.71%K -13.13%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-24 07:50
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -2.53%E -1.06%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -7.95%E -5.13%K -14.45%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-24 07:50
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.35%E -1.41%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.76%E -4.31%K -11.86%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-24 07:35
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.35%E -1.41%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.76%E -4.31%K -11.86%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-24 07:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.85%EV -3.75%E -1.58%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.15%EV -6.76%E -4.31%K -11.86%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-24 07:50
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.85%EV -3.75%E -1.58%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.15%EV -6.76%E -4.31%K -11.86%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-24 07:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.56%E -1.94%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.76%E -4.31%K -11.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-24 07:50
Neds🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.56%E -1.94%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.76%E -4.31%K -11.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-24 07:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -5.78%E -2.49%K -4.38%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.38%E -2.72%K -7.19%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-24 07:39
LiveScore Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -5.78%E -2.49%K -4.38%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.38%E -2.72%K -7.19%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-24 07:39
Bet Right🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.59%E -2.87%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.79%E -2.34%K -6.11%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-24 07:50
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -6.59%E -2.87%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -9.14%E -5.97%K -17.24%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-24 07:50
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -6.59%E -2.87%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -9.14%E -5.97%K -17.24%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-24 07:49
Marathon Bet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 40.36%EV -7.00%E -3.06%K -5.43%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.64%EV -7.95%E -5.13%K -14.45%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-24 07:55
Pinnacle🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 42.39%EV -7.81%E -3.44%K -6.15%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.61%EV -0.821%E -0.491%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-24 07:45
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.62%E -3.83%K -6.90%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.79%E -2.34%K -6.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-24 07:44
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -10.66%E -4.84%K -8.88%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -0.821%E -0.491%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-24 07:45
GTbets🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -10.66%E -4.84%K -8.88%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -1.41%E -0.852%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-24 07:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -12.69%E -5.90%K -11.03%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -0.821%E -0.491%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-24 07:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57%1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43%0.5%2026-09-24 07:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58%0.7%2026-09-24 07:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09%1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91%0.7%2026-09-24 07:55