The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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South Africa v Australia

Kickoff: 2026-09-27 07:58 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

South Africa (Local)

Prediction 46.56%2.15fair odd
EV +2.44%
Edge +1.11%
Kelly +2.03%
Growth +0.050%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.15%46.26%46.54%48.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.032.042.2051.28%49.34%49.02%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Australia (Visit)

Prediction 53.44%1.87fair odd
EV -1.68%
Edge -0.911%
Kelly -2.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.71%53.74%53.46%56.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.771.781.8460.61%56.41%56.18%54.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: South Africa (Local): 46.56%; Australia (Visit): 53.44%. For South Africa (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.15. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.44%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV +2.44%E +1.11%K +2.03%G +0.050%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -10.76%E -6.44%K -16.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-27 07:45
PlayUp🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -1.29%E -0.606%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -8.09%E -4.70%K -11.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-27 07:45
Pinnacle🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.88%EV -2.22%E -1.06%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.12%EV -4.88%E -2.74%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-27 07:55
GTbets🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -2.22%E -1.06%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -8.62%E -5.04%K -12.15%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-27 07:40
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -2.22%E -1.06%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -11.83%E -7.17%K -18.20%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-27 07:40
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.54%E -2.22%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.02%E -4.03%K -9.49%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-27 07:54
Unibet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -5.01%E -2.46%K -4.82%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -4.88%E -2.74%K -6.26%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-27 07:55
TABtouch🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -5.01%E -2.46%K -4.82%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -4.88%E -2.74%K -6.26%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-27 07:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -5.01%E -2.46%K -4.82%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -4.88%E -2.74%K -6.26%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-27 07:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -5.01%E -2.46%K -4.82%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -4.88%E -2.74%K -6.26%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-27 07:55
Grosvenor🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -5.01%E -2.46%K -4.82%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -4.88%E -2.74%K -6.26%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-27 07:55
Casumo🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -5.01%E -2.46%K -4.82%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -4.88%E -2.74%K -6.26%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-27 07:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -5.01%E -2.46%K -4.82%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -4.88%E -2.74%K -6.26%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-27 07:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -5.01%E -2.46%K -4.82%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -4.88%E -2.74%K -6.26%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-27 07:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -5.01%E -2.46%K -4.82%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -4.88%E -2.74%K -6.26%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-27 07:55
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.87%E -3.44%K -6.87%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.81%E -2.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-27 07:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.87%E -3.44%K -6.87%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.81%E -2.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-27 07:50
SportsBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.87%E -3.44%K -6.87%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.81%E -2.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-27 07:50
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.87%E -3.44%K -6.87%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.81%E -2.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-27 07:45
TAB🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.87%E -3.44%K -6.87%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.81%E -2.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-27 07:45
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -6.87%E -3.44%K -6.87%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -4.88%E -2.74%K -6.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-27 07:50
Bet Right🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.29%EV -8.27%E -4.20%K -8.53%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.71%EV -1.68%E -0.911%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-27 07:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -8.27%E -4.20%K -8.53%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -2.21%E -1.21%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-27 07:54
Neds🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%EV -8.74%E -4.46%K -9.10%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.13%EV -3.81%E -2.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-27 07:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%EV -8.74%E -4.46%K -9.10%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.13%EV -3.81%E -2.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-27 07:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.17%EV -8.74%E -4.46%K -9.10%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.83%EV -6.49%E -3.71%K -8.65%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-27 07:50
betano_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.20%E -4.72%K -9.69%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.81%E -2.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-27 07:54
Bet Victor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -9.20%E -4.72%K -9.69%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -6.49%E -3.71%K -8.65%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-27 07:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.50%1.90I 52.63%NM 52.50%0.3%2026-09-27 07:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.12I 47.17%NM 47.00%1.88I 53.19%NM 53.00%0.4%2026-09-27 07:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.37%1.89I 52.91%NM 52.63%0.5%2026-09-27 07:50