The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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South Africa v Australia

Kickoff: 2026-09-30 11:38 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

South Africa (Local)

Prediction 45.91%2.18fair odd
EV +1.01%
Edge +0.457%
Kelly +0.839%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.15%46.13%45.24%48.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.022.002.2051.28%49.46%50.00%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Australia (Visit)

Prediction 54.09%1.85fair odd
EV +0.063%
Edge +0.034%
Kelly +0.074%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.32%53.87%54.76%56.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.781.801.8559.88%56.24%55.56%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: South Africa (Local): 45.91%; Australia (Visit): 54.09%. For South Africa (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.18. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.01%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV +1.01%E +0.457%K +0.839%G +0.008%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -9.13%E -5.44%K -13.43%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-30 10:58
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV +1.01%E +0.457%K +0.839%G +0.008%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -9.67%E -5.79%K -14.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-30 11:19
Pinnacle🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -1.29%E -0.600%K -1.12%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -5.89%E -3.38%K -7.96%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-30 10:55
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.58%E -1.71%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.43%E -3.72%K -8.80%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-30 10:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.58%E -1.71%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.43%E -3.72%K -8.80%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-30 11:05
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.58%E -1.71%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.43%E -3.72%K -8.80%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-30 08:18
GTbets🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -5.88%E -2.87%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.43%E -3.72%K -8.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-30 11:24
Marathon Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.31%EV -6.34%E -3.11%K -6.10%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.69%EV -8.59%E -5.08%K -12.45%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-30 11:10
Bet Right🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.72%EV -6.80%E -3.35%K -6.60%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.28%EV -3.72%E -2.09%K -4.77%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-30 11:05
Unibet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.18%E -4.09%K -8.18%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.64%E -1.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-30 11:35
Grosvenor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.18%E -4.09%K -8.18%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.64%E -1.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-30 11:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.18%E -4.09%K -8.18%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.64%E -1.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-30 11:35
TABtouch🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.18%E -4.09%K -8.18%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.64%E -1.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-30 11:34
Unibet (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.18%E -4.09%K -8.18%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.64%E -1.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-30 11:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.18%E -4.09%K -8.18%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.64%E -1.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-30 11:34
LiveScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.18%E -4.09%K -8.18%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.64%E -1.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-30 11:34
ATG (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.18%E -4.09%K -8.18%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.64%E -1.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-30 11:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.18%E -4.09%K -8.18%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.64%E -1.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-30 11:35
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.18%E -4.09%K -8.18%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.64%E -1.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-30 11:34
Casumo🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.18%E -4.09%K -8.18%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.64%E -1.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-30 11:35
SportsBet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -9.55%E -4.85%K -9.85%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -1.02%E -0.557%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-30 11:34
Neds🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%EV -10.01%E -5.11%K -10.43%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.13%EV -2.64%E -1.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-30 11:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%EV -10.01%E -5.11%K -10.43%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.13%EV -2.64%E -1.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-30 11:34
TAB🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -10.47%E -5.37%K -11.02%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV +0.063%E +0.034%K +0.074%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-30 11:35
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -10.47%E -5.37%K -11.02%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -1.02%E -0.557%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-30 11:34
betano_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -10.47%E -5.37%K -11.02%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -2.64%E -1.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-30 11:34
Bet Victor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -10.47%E -5.37%K -11.02%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -2.64%E -1.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-30 11:33
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -10.47%E -5.37%K -11.02%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -2.64%E -1.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-30 11:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.87%1.91I 52.36%NM 52.13%0.4%2026-09-30 11:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 49.25%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.75%0.5%2026-09-30 11:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.24%1.88I 53.19%NM 52.76%0.8%2026-09-30 11:35