The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Scotland v USA

Kickoff: 2026-05-20 03:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Scotland (Local)

Prediction 49.64%2.01fair odd
EV -0.713%
Edge -0.357%
Kelly -0.713%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.37%49.64%50.00%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.941.942.0054.05%51.62%51.55%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

USA (Visit)

Prediction 50.36%1.99fair odd
EV -5.83%
Edge -3.12%
Kelly -6.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%50.36%50.00%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.841.851.8755.56%54.25%54.05%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Scotland (Local): 49.64%; USA (Visit): 50.36%. For Scotland (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.01. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.00, with an expected value of -0.713%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Neds🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -0.713%E -0.357%K -0.713%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -9.36%E -5.20%K -11.70%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-20 03:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -0.713%E -0.357%K -0.713%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -9.36%E -5.20%K -11.70%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-20 03:39
Unibet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -3.20%E -1.64%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -6.84%E -3.70%K -8.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-20 03:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -3.20%E -1.64%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -6.84%E -3.70%K -8.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-20 03:39
Virgin Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -3.20%E -1.64%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -6.84%E -3.70%K -8.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-20 03:39
Grosvenor🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -3.69%E -1.90%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -6.84%E -3.70%K -8.05%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-20 03:39
TABtouch🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -3.69%E -1.90%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -6.84%E -3.70%K -8.05%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-20 03:39
Casumo🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -3.69%E -1.90%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -6.84%E -3.70%K -8.05%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-20 03:39
LeoVegas🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -3.69%E -1.90%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -6.84%E -3.70%K -8.05%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-20 03:39
Unibet (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -3.69%E -1.90%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -6.84%E -3.70%K -8.05%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-20 03:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -3.69%E -1.90%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -6.84%E -3.70%K -8.05%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-20 03:39
ATG (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -3.69%E -1.90%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -6.84%E -3.70%K -8.05%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-20 03:39
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -5.18%E -2.71%K -5.69%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -7.85%E -4.29%K -9.45%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-19 23:29
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.17%E -3.83%K -8.24%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -5.83%E -3.12%K -6.70%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-19 09:19
Marathon Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -8.16%E -4.41%K -9.60%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -6.84%E -3.70%K -8.05%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-20 03:08
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.