The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Oman v Nepal

Kickoff: 2026-10-19 05:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Oman (Local)

Prediction 37.73%2.65fair odd
EV +9.42%
Edge +3.25%
Kelly +4.96%
Growth +0.467%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.56%37.73%37.73%37.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.632.602.9040.00%38.01%38.46%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nepal (Visit)

Prediction 62.27%1.61fair odd
EV -4.73%
Edge -3.09%
Kelly -8.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.03%62.27%62.27%67.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.451.441.5371.43%69.08%69.44%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Oman (Local): 37.73%; Nepal (Visit): 62.27%. For Oman (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.65. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.42%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +9.42%E +3.25%K +4.96%G +0.467%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -12.83%E -9.16%K -32.06%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-19 05:20
Neds🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +9.42%E +3.25%K +4.96%G +0.467%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -12.83%E -9.16%K -32.06%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-19 05:20
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -1.90%E -0.729%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -9.71%E -6.70%K -21.58%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-19 04:14
Virgin Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -1.90%E -0.729%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -9.71%E -6.70%K -21.58%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-19 04:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -1.90%E -0.729%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -9.71%E -6.70%K -21.58%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-19 04:09
Unibet (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -1.90%E -0.729%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -10.33%E -7.18%K -23.49%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-19 04:09
TABtouch🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -1.90%E -0.729%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -10.33%E -7.18%K -23.49%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-19 04:09
Casumo🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -1.90%E -0.729%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -10.33%E -7.18%K -23.49%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-19 04:10
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -1.90%E -0.729%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -10.33%E -7.18%K -23.49%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-19 04:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -1.90%E -0.729%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -10.33%E -7.18%K -23.49%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-19 04:09
ATG (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -1.90%E -0.729%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -10.33%E -7.18%K -23.49%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-19 04:10
DraftKings🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.67%E -2.27%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.73%E -3.09%K -8.93%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-19 03:19
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.67%E -2.27%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.60%E -4.40%K -13.20%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-17 20:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.