The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Nepal v USA

Kickoff: 2026-05-16 03:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nepal (Local)

Prediction 40.01%2.50fair odd
EV +0.019%
Edge +0.008%
Kelly +0.013%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.97%40.01%40.73%41.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.272.322.302.5044.05%43.14%43.48%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

USA (Visit)

Prediction 59.99%1.67fair odd
EV -2.81%
Edge -1.74%
Kelly -4.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.67%59.99%59.27%62.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.571.561.6265.36%63.88%64.10%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nepal (Local): 40.01%; USA (Visit): 59.99%. For Nepal (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.4995. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.5000, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.019%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +0.019%E +0.008%K +0.013%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -8.21%E -5.37%K -15.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-16 02:35
Neds🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -5.98%E -2.55%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.81%E -3.70%K -10.20%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-16 03:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -5.98%E -2.55%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.81%E -3.70%K -10.20%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-16 03:40
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -7.98%E -3.47%K -6.14%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -2.81%E -1.74%K -4.54%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-15 06:39
Unibet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -7.98%E -3.47%K -6.14%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.81%E -3.70%K -10.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-15 21:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -7.98%E -3.47%K -6.14%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.81%E -3.70%K -10.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-15 21:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -7.98%E -3.47%K -6.14%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.81%E -3.70%K -10.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-15 21:40
TABtouch🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -7.98%E -3.47%K -6.14%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -6.41%E -4.11%K -11.45%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-15 21:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -7.98%E -3.47%K -6.14%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -6.41%E -4.11%K -11.45%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-15 21:40
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -7.98%E -3.47%K -6.14%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -6.41%E -4.11%K -11.45%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-15 21:40
Grosvenor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -7.98%E -3.47%K -6.14%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -6.41%E -4.11%K -11.45%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-15 21:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -7.98%E -3.47%K -6.14%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -6.41%E -4.11%K -11.45%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-15 21:40
Casumo🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -7.98%E -3.47%K -6.14%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -6.41%E -4.11%K -11.45%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-15 21:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -7.98%E -3.47%K -6.14%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -6.41%E -4.11%K -11.45%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-15 21:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 40.73%EV -9.18%E -4.05%K -7.23%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.27%EV -6.41%E -4.11%K -11.45%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 02:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.