The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Nepal v UAE

Kickoff: 2026-05-01 03:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nepal (Local)

Prediction 53.36%1.87fair odd
EV -2.35%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -2.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.07%53.36%53.36%56.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.801.831.8359.88%55.60%54.64%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UAE (Visit)

Prediction 46.64%2.14fair odd
EV +0.275%
Edge +0.128%
Kelly +0.239%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.72%46.64%46.64%48.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.911.961.912.1552.36%51.00%52.36%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nepal (Local): 53.36%; UAE (Visit): 46.64%. For UAE (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.14. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.275%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -10.89%E -6.52%K -16.25%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV +0.275%E +0.128%K +0.239%G +0.001%6.4%2026-05-01 03:39
Neds🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -10.89%E -6.52%K -16.25%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV +0.275%E +0.128%K +0.239%G +0.001%6.4%2026-05-01 03:40
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.15%E -4.11%K -9.67%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.39%E -2.14%K -4.18%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-30 23:59
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.95%E -2.19%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.72%E -3.36%K -6.72%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-30 23:59
Unibet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -2.35%E -1.28%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -10.92%E -5.72%K -12.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-30 23:59
Virgin Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -2.35%E -1.28%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -10.92%E -5.72%K -12.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-01 00:00
Casumo🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -2.35%E -1.28%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -10.92%E -5.72%K -12.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-30 23:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -2.35%E -1.28%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -10.92%E -5.72%K -12.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-30 23:59
TABtouch🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -2.35%E -1.28%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -10.92%E -5.72%K -12.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-30 23:59
LiveScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -2.35%E -1.28%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -10.92%E -5.72%K -12.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-01 00:00
Grosvenor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -2.35%E -1.28%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -10.92%E -5.72%K -12.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-30 23:59
LeoVegas🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -2.35%E -1.28%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -10.92%E -5.72%K -12.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-30 23:59
Unibet (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -2.35%E -1.28%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -10.92%E -5.72%K -12.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-30 23:59
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -2.35%E -1.28%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -10.92%E -5.72%K -12.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-01 00:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.