The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Nepal v Netherlands

Kickoff: 2026-07-29 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nepal (Local)

Prediction 37.94%2.64fair odd
EV +0.534%
Edge +0.201%
Kelly +0.323%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.68%37.94%37.56%40.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.432.382.6543.48%41.14%42.02%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Netherlands (Visit)

Prediction 62.06%1.61fair odd
EV -2.56%
Edge -1.63%
Kelly -4.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.43%62.06%62.44%64.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.521.541.5768.03%65.67%64.94%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nepal (Local): 37.94%; Netherlands (Visit): 62.06%. For Nepal (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.64. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.534%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV +0.534%E +0.201%K +0.323%G +0.002%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -8.77%E -5.96%K -18.65%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-29 08:55
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -1.36%E -0.524%K -0.852%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -8.77%E -5.96%K -18.65%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-29 08:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -1.36%E -0.524%K -0.852%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -8.77%E -5.96%K -18.65%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-29 08:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 37.56%EV -6.67%E -2.71%K -4.57%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.44%EV -8.15%E -5.50%K -16.97%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-29 08:55
Unibet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -9.71%E -4.08%K -7.04%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.71%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-29 08:50
Casumo🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -9.71%E -4.08%K -7.04%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.71%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-29 08:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -9.71%E -4.08%K -7.04%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.71%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-29 08:50
Grosvenor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -9.71%E -4.08%K -7.04%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.71%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-29 08:50
TABtouch🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -9.71%E -4.08%K -7.04%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.71%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-29 08:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -9.71%E -4.08%K -7.04%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.71%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-29 08:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -9.71%E -4.08%K -7.04%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.71%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-29 08:49
LiveScore Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -9.71%E -4.08%K -7.04%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.71%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-29 08:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -9.71%E -4.08%K -7.04%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.71%EV -4.42%E -2.87%K -8.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-29 08:50
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -12.74%E -5.54%K -9.80%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -2.56%E -1.63%K -4.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-29 08:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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