The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Namibia v USA

Kickoff: 2026-10-13 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Namibia (Local)

Prediction 33.22%3.01fair odd
EV -0.333%
Edge -0.111%
Kelly -0.167%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.19%33.22%33.22%63.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.472.602.803.0068.03%38.42%35.71%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

USA (Visit)

Prediction 66.78%1.50fair odd
EV +73.62%
Edge +28.32%
Kelly +46.01%
Growth +33.88%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.12%66.78%66.78%68.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.591.412.6073.53%62.74%70.92%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Namibia (Local): 33.22%; USA (Visit): 66.78%. For USA (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.50. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +73.62%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -51.16%E -34.80%K -108.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV +73.62%E +28.32%K +46.01%G +33.88%6.5%2026-10-13 14:54
Neds🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -51.16%E -34.80%K -108.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV +73.62%E +28.32%K +46.01%G +33.88%6.5%2026-10-13 14:54
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -10.30%E -3.81%K -6.06%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -1.84%E -1.25%K -3.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-13 11:09
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -6.98%E -2.49%K -3.88%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.51%EV -5.84%E -4.14%K -14.25%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-13 14:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -6.98%E -2.49%K -3.88%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.51%EV -5.84%E -4.14%K -14.25%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-13 14:54
Grosvenor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -6.98%E -2.49%K -3.88%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.51%EV -5.84%E -4.14%K -14.25%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-13 14:54
LiveScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -6.98%E -2.49%K -3.88%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.51%EV -5.84%E -4.14%K -14.25%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-13 14:55
TABtouch🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -6.98%E -2.49%K -3.88%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.51%EV -5.84%E -4.14%K -14.25%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-13 14:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -6.98%E -2.49%K -3.88%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.51%EV -5.84%E -4.14%K -14.25%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-13 14:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -6.98%E -2.49%K -3.88%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.51%EV -5.84%E -4.14%K -14.25%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-13 14:54
Casumo🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -6.98%E -2.49%K -3.88%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.51%EV -5.84%E -4.14%K -14.25%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-13 14:54
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -6.98%E -2.49%K -3.88%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.51%EV -5.84%E -4.14%K -14.25%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-13 14:54
BoyleSports🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -0.333%E -0.111%K -0.167%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -9.18%E -6.75%K -25.51%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-13 14:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.