The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Ireland v Afghanistan

Kickoff: 2026-08-07 10:52 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ireland (Local)

Prediction 39.75%2.52fair odd
EV -5.40%
Edge -2.27%
Kelly -3.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.75%39.75%39.75%43.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.232.202.3846.51%44.83%45.45%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Afghanistan (Visit)

Prediction 60.25%1.66fair odd
EV +0.020%
Edge +0.012%
Kelly +0.031%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.99%60.25%60.25%60.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.641.661.6663.69%61.03%60.24%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ireland (Local): 39.75%; Afghanistan (Visit): 60.25%. For Afghanistan (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.6597. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.6600, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.020%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -12.56%E -5.71%K -10.46%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV +0.020%E +0.012%K +0.031%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-07 10:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -12.56%E -5.71%K -10.46%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV +0.020%E +0.012%K +0.031%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-07 10:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -12.56%E -5.71%K -10.46%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV +0.020%E +0.012%K +0.031%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-07 10:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -12.56%E -5.71%K -10.46%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV +0.020%E +0.012%K +0.031%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-07 10:50
Casumo🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -12.56%E -5.71%K -10.46%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV +0.020%E +0.012%K +0.031%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-07 10:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -12.56%E -5.71%K -10.46%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV +0.020%E +0.012%K +0.031%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-07 10:50
Grosvenor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -12.56%E -5.71%K -10.46%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV +0.020%E +0.012%K +0.031%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-07 10:50
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -12.56%E -5.71%K -10.46%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV +0.020%E +0.012%K +0.031%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-07 10:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -12.56%E -5.71%K -10.46%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV +0.020%E +0.012%K +0.031%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-07 10:50
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -8.58%E -3.73%K -6.60%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -2.39%E -1.48%K -3.85%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-07 10:00
TAB🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -14.54%E -6.76%K -12.65%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%EV -3.59%E -2.25%K -5.99%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-07 10:50
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.40%E -2.27%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.40%E -3.44%K -9.48%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-05 12:25
SportsBet🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.85%EV -5.80%E -2.45%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.15%EV -5.40%E -3.44%K -9.48%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-07 09:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 42.93%1.73I 57.80%NM 57.07%1.3%2026-08-07 10:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 41.65%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.35%2.6%2026-08-07 10:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.69I 59.17%NM 51.30%1.78I 56.18%NM 48.70%15.4%2026-08-07 10:50