The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Hong Kong v Kuwait

Kickoff: 2026-03-03 01:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hong Kong (Local)

Prediction 54.48%1.84fair odd
EV -2.48%
Edge -1.39%
Kelly -3.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.62%54.44%54.48%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.691.671.7960.61%59.15%59.88%55.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kuwait (Visit)

Prediction 45.52%2.20fair odd
EV +0.142%
Edge +0.065%
Kelly +0.118%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.86%45.56%45.52%46.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.102.092.2050.00%47.73%47.73%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hong Kong (Local): 54.48%; Kuwait (Visit): 45.52%. For Kuwait (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.197. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.200, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.142%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -9.02%E -5.40%K -13.46%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV +0.142%E +0.065%K +0.118%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-03 00:40
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -9.02%E -5.40%K -13.46%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV +0.142%E +0.065%K +0.118%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-03 00:30
SportsBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -10.11%E -6.13%K -15.55%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV +0.142%E +0.065%K +0.118%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-03 00:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -9.02%E -5.40%K -13.46%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -2.13%E -0.993%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-03 00:40
Neds🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -9.02%E -5.40%K -13.46%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -2.13%E -0.993%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-03 00:40
PlayUp🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -6.29%E -3.66%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -3.50%E -1.65%K -3.12%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-02 19:19
DraftKings🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.84%E -4.00%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -4.41%E -2.10%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-03 00:20
Pinnacle🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.87%EV -2.48%E -1.39%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 46.13%EV -4.87%E -2.33%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-02 20:39
GTbets🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -6.84%E -4.00%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -6.69%E -3.26%K -6.37%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-02 21:30
Bet Victor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -9.02%E -5.40%K -13.46%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -6.69%E -3.26%K -6.37%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-03 00:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.16%EV -6.84%E -4.00%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.84%EV -8.05%E -3.99%K -7.89%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-02 22:15
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.75%E -3.32%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.96%E -4.48%K -8.96%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-02 17:34
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.79%EV -10.11%E -6.13%K -15.55%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -8.96%E -4.48%K -8.96%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-02 19:19
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.79%EV -10.11%E -6.13%K -15.55%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -8.96%E -4.48%K -8.96%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-02 19:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.78I 56.18%NM 51.89%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.11%8.3%2026-03-03 00:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.78I 56.18%NM 51.89%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.11%8.3%2026-03-03 00:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.78I 56.18%NM 51.89%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.11%8.3%2026-03-03 00:50