The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Hong Kong v Kuwait

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 01:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hong Kong (Local)

Prediction 57.77%1.73fair odd
EV -2.95%
Edge -1.76%
Kelly -4.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.70%58.42%57.59%62.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.611.611.6865.36%62.21%62.11%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kuwait (Visit)

Prediction 42.23%2.37fair odd
EV +5.58%
Edge +2.23%
Kelly +3.72%
Growth +0.208%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.97%41.58%42.41%43.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.252.252.5047.62%44.48%44.44%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hong Kong (Local): 57.77%; Kuwait (Visit): 42.23%. For Kuwait (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.37. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.58%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -11.62%E -7.59%K -21.92%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +5.58%E +2.23%K +3.72%G +0.208%5.4%2026-03-06 22:24
GTbets🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.56%EV -10.46%E -6.75%K -19.02%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV +0.513%E +0.216%K +0.372%G +0.002%6.5%2026-03-06 23:14
Everygame🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -7.57%E -4.73%K -12.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -2.87%E -1.25%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-07 00:49
TAB🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -8.73%E -5.52%K -15.05%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -2.87%E -1.25%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-07 00:34
SportsBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.25%EV -6.42%E -3.96%K -10.35%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.75%EV -4.55%E -2.02%K -3.61%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-07 00:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.68%E -2.84%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.98%E -2.21%K -3.98%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-07 00:44
Neds🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.68%E -2.84%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.98%E -2.21%K -3.98%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-07 00:44
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.42%E -3.96%K -10.35%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.98%E -2.21%K -3.98%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-05 15:59
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.42%E -3.96%K -10.35%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.98%E -2.21%K -3.98%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-07 00:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.53%EV -8.73%E -5.52%K -15.05%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.47%EV -5.82%E -2.61%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-07 00:50
PlayUp🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -2.95%E -1.76%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -7.09%E -3.22%K -5.91%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-07 00:49
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.42%E -3.96%K -10.35%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -7.09%E -3.22%K -5.91%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-05 15:59
Bet Victor🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.18%EV -6.99%E -4.34%K -11.47%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -9.20%E -4.28%K -8.00%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-07 00:49
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -7.57%E -4.73%K -12.62%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -11.31%E -5.39%K -10.28%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-07 00:49
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -7.57%E -4.73%K -12.62%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -11.31%E -5.39%K -10.28%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-07 00:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74%2.3%2026-03-07 00:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74%2.3%2026-03-07 00:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74%2.3%2026-03-07 00:55