The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Hong Kong v Kuwait

Kickoff: 2026-03-05 01:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hong Kong (Local)

Prediction 54.40%1.84fair odd
EV -4.81%
Edge -2.75%
Kelly -6.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.62%54.56%53.76%55.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.721.731.7559.88%58.21%57.97%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kuwait (Visit)

Prediction 45.60%2.19fair odd
EV -1.95%
Edge -0.907%
Kelly -1.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.01%45.44%46.24%46.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.052.062.1551.28%48.68%48.43%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hong Kong (Local): 54.40%; Kuwait (Visit): 45.60%. For Kuwait (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.19. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.15, with an expected value of -1.95%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
PlayUp🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.81%E -2.75%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.14%E -2.47%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-05 00:30
Everygame🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.81%E -2.75%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.51%E -3.18%K -6.20%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-05 00:35
Neds🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.81%E -2.75%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.51%E -3.18%K -6.20%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-05 00:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.81%E -2.75%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.51%E -3.18%K -6.20%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-05 00:30
Sky Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.90%E -3.41%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.23%E -2.01%K -3.85%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-04 12:15
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.90%E -3.41%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.23%E -2.01%K -3.85%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-04 12:19
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.90%E -3.41%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.79%E -4.40%K -8.79%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-05 00:33
SportsBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.44%E -3.74%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -4.23%E -2.01%K -3.85%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-04 12:14
Marathon Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -6.44%E -3.74%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -8.79%E -4.40%K -8.79%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-05 00:55
GTbets🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -7.53%E -4.43%K -10.75%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -5.14%E -2.47%K -4.76%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-04 15:45
DraftKings🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -8.07%E -4.78%K -11.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -1.95%E -0.907%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-04 15:45
NordicBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.72%EV -8.62%E -5.13%K -12.67%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.28%EV -11.07%E -5.68%K -11.65%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-05 00:30
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.72%EV -8.62%E -5.13%K -12.67%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.28%EV -11.07%E -5.68%K -11.65%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-05 00:30
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -9.16%E -5.49%K -13.67%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.23%E -2.01%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-04 12:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.61I 62.11%NM 55.40%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.60%12.1%2026-03-05 00:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.61I 62.11%NM 55.40%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.60%12.1%2026-03-05 00:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.60I 62.50%NM 55.56%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.44%12.5%2026-03-05 00:45