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England v Sri Lanka
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
England (Local)
Prediction 80.04%1.25fair odd
EV -2.35%
Edge -1.93%
Kelly -10.68%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.22
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.58%79.96%79.88%82.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.181.171.2287.72%85.00%85.47%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sri Lanka (Visit)
Prediction 19.96%5.01fair odd
EV +9.77%
Edge +1.78%
Kelly +2.17%
Growth +0.212%
assuming max odds 5.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.17%20.04%20.12%21.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.334.915.005.5023.09%20.36%20.00%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: England (Local): 80.04%; Sri Lanka (Visit): 19.96%. For Sri Lanka (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.01. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.77%.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -8.75%E -7.68%K -62.52%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV +9.77%E +1.78%K +2.17%G +0.212% | 5.9% | 2026-09-27 08:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -7.15%E -6.17%K -44.70%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +4.78%E +0.911%K +1.13%G +0.054% | 5.3% | 2026-09-27 09:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.35%E -5.43%K -37.36%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +1.79%E +0.351%K +0.437%G +0.008% | 5.1% | 2026-09-27 09:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.35%E -5.43%K -37.36%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +1.79%E +0.351%K +0.437%G +0.008% | 5.1% | 2026-09-27 09:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.35%E -5.43%K -37.36%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +1.79%E +0.351%K +0.437%G +0.008% | 5.1% | 2026-09-27 09:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.35%E -5.43%K -37.36%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +1.79%E +0.351%K +0.437%G +0.008% | 5.1% | 2026-09-27 09:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.35%E -5.43%K -37.36%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +1.79%E +0.351%K +0.437%G +0.008% | 5.1% | 2026-09-27 09:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.35%E -5.43%K -37.36%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +1.79%E +0.351%K +0.437%G +0.008% | 5.1% | 2026-09-27 09:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.35%E -5.43%K -37.36%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +1.79%E +0.351%K +0.437%G +0.008% | 5.1% | 2026-09-27 09:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.35%E -5.43%K -37.36%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +1.79%E +0.351%K +0.437%G +0.008% | 5.1% | 2026-09-27 09:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.35%E -5.43%K -37.36%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +1.79%E +0.351%K +0.437%G +0.008% | 5.1% | 2026-09-27 09:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 80.39%EV -2.35%E -1.93%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.61%EV -0.206%E -0.041%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 2.0% | 2026-09-27 09:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 80.39%EV -2.35%E -1.93%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.61%EV -0.206%E -0.041%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 2.0% | 2026-09-27 09:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.35%E -5.43%K -37.36%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -0.206%E -0.041%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-27 09:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.35%E -5.43%K -37.36%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -0.206%E -0.041%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-27 09:24 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.35%E -5.43%K -37.36%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -0.206%E -0.041%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-27 09:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.35%E -5.43%K -37.36%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -0.206%E -0.041%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-27 07:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -7.15%E -6.17%K -44.70%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -0.206%E -0.041%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-27 09:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.75%E -3.99%K -25.00%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -5.20%E -1.09%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-27 09:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.75%E -3.99%K -25.00%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -5.20%E -1.09%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-27 07:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -4.75%E -3.99%K -25.00%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -6.19%E -1.32%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-27 09:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -4.75%E -3.99%K -25.00%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -6.19%E -1.32%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-27 09:24 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -5.55%E -4.70%K -30.84%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -8.19%E -1.78%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-27 09:24 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -5.55%E -4.70%K -30.84%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -8.19%E -1.78%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-27 09:25 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -5.55%E -4.70%K -30.84%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -8.19%E -1.78%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-27 09:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -6.35%E -5.43%K -37.36%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -10.19%E -2.26%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-27 09:14 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.58%EV -5.55%E -4.70%K -30.84%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -13.58%E -3.14%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-27 09:18 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.58%EV -5.55%E -4.70%K -30.84%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -13.58%E -3.14%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-27 09:14 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.86% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.14% | 0.6% | 2026-09-27 09:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.86% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.14% | 0.6% | 2026-09-27 09:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.97% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.03% | 0.8% | 2026-09-27 09:25 |