The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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England v India

Kickoff: 2026-07-16 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

England (Local)

Prediction 54.85%1.82fair odd
EV -3.46%
Edge -1.96%
Kelly -4.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.81%54.88%54.83%58.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.711.711.7662.50%58.53%58.48%56.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

India (Visit)

Prediction 45.15%2.22fair odd
EV +3.83%
Edge +1.67%
Kelly +2.95%
Growth +0.113%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.03%45.12%45.17%46.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.022.122.102.3049.50%47.10%47.62%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: England (Local): 54.85%; India (Visit): 45.15%. For India (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.22. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.83%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Betr (AU)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -12.23%E -7.65%K -20.39%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV +3.83%E +1.67%K +2.95%G +0.113%6.0%2026-07-16 11:45
PlayUp1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -7.84%E -4.67%K -11.54%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -0.680%E -0.309%K -0.567%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-16 11:50
TAB1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -9.49%E -5.75%K -14.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -0.680%E -0.309%K -0.567%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-16 11:50
Unibet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.75%E -3.97%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -2.94%E -1.37%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-16 11:40
Virgin Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.75%E -3.97%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -2.94%E -1.37%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-16 11:40
LiveScore Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.75%E -3.97%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -2.94%E -1.37%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-16 11:40
Unibet (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.75%E -3.97%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -2.94%E -1.37%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-16 11:40
Casumo1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.75%E -3.97%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -2.94%E -1.37%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-16 11:40
Grosvenor1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.75%E -3.97%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -2.94%E -1.37%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-16 11:40
TABtouch1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.75%E -3.97%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -2.94%E -1.37%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-16 11:40
LeoVegas (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.75%E -3.97%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -2.94%E -1.37%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-16 11:40
ATG (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.75%E -3.97%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -2.94%E -1.37%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-16 11:40
Pinnacle1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -3.46%E -1.96%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -4.29%E -2.02%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-16 11:45
Bet Right1.73I 57.80%NM 54.95%EV -5.10%E -2.95%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.05%EV -4.74%E -2.25%K -4.27%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-16 11:55
PointsBet (AU)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.10%E -2.95%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.19%E -2.47%K -4.72%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-16 11:55
William Hill1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.10%E -2.95%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.19%E -2.47%K -4.72%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-16 11:20
Coral1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.10%E -2.95%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.19%E -2.47%K -4.72%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-16 11:40
Ladbrokes (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.10%E -2.95%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.19%E -2.47%K -4.72%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-16 11:40
Paddy Power1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.10%E -2.95%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.19%E -2.47%K -4.72%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-16 11:35
Sky Bet1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.10%E -2.95%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.19%E -2.47%K -4.72%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-16 11:40
BoyleSports1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.10%E -2.95%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.19%E -2.47%K -4.72%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-16 11:40
Neds1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.65%E -3.29%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.19%E -2.47%K -4.72%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-16 11:40
Ladbrokes (AU)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.65%E -3.29%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.19%E -2.47%K -4.72%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-16 11:40
SportsBet1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.65%E -3.29%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.19%E -2.47%K -4.72%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-16 11:40
DraftKings1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.20%E -3.63%K -8.73%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.19%E -2.47%K -4.72%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-16 11:39
betano_uk1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.39%E -5.03%K -12.53%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -5.19%E -2.47%K -4.72%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-16 11:53
Bet Victor1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.39%E -5.03%K -12.53%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -5.19%E -2.47%K -4.72%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-16 11:53
GTbets1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -3.46%E -1.96%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -7.45%E -3.63%K -7.10%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-16 11:40
Everygame1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.00%E -2.29%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.45%E -3.63%K -7.10%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-16 11:40
Marathon Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 54.16%EV -6.20%E -3.63%K -8.73%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.84%EV -8.81%E -4.36%K -8.63%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-16 11:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.79I 55.87%NM 55.80%2.26I 44.25%NM 44.20%0.1%2026-07-16 11:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78%0.6%2026-07-16 11:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78%0.6%2026-07-16 11:55