The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Canada v Nepal

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 06:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Canada (Local)

Prediction 51.59%1.94fair odd
EV +18.65%
Edge +8.11%
Kelly +14.35%
Growth +2.68%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.41%51.59%51.59%51.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.832.252.302.3054.64%44.39%43.48%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nepal (Visit)

Prediction 48.41%2.07fair odd
EV -5.60%
Edge -2.87%
Kelly -5.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.41%48.41%48.41%59.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.601.561.9564.10%62.42%64.10%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Canada (Local): 51.59%; Nepal (Visit): 48.41%. For Canada (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.94. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +18.65%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV +18.65%E +8.11%K +14.35%G +2.68%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -23.99%E -15.28%K -42.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-10 14:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV +18.65%E +8.11%K +14.35%G +2.68%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -23.99%E -15.28%K -42.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-10 14:01
Virgin Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV +18.65%E +8.11%K +14.35%G +2.68%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -23.99%E -15.28%K -42.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-10 14:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV +18.65%E +8.11%K +14.35%G +2.68%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -24.48%E -15.69%K -43.71%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-10 14:00
Grosvenor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV +18.65%E +8.11%K +14.35%G +2.68%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -24.48%E -15.69%K -43.71%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-10 14:01
Casumo🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV +18.65%E +8.11%K +14.35%G +2.68%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -24.48%E -15.69%K -43.71%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-10 14:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV +18.65%E +8.11%K +14.35%G +2.68%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -24.48%E -15.69%K -43.71%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-10 14:00
TABtouch🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV +18.65%E +8.11%K +14.35%G +2.68%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -24.48%E -15.69%K -43.71%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-10 14:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV +18.65%E +8.11%K +14.35%G +2.68%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -24.48%E -15.69%K -43.71%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-10 14:01
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -5.60%E -3.06%K -6.74%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -5.60%E -2.87%K -5.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-11 05:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.