The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Canada v Nepal

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 05:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Canada (Local)

Prediction 34.29%2.92fair odd
EV -5.71%
Edge -2.07%
Kelly -3.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.21%34.29%34.29%36.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.692.702.7538.46%37.14%37.04%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nepal (Visit)

Prediction 65.71%1.52fair odd
EV -3.40%
Edge -2.32%
Kelly -7.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.88%65.71%65.71%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.441.431.4769.93%69.48%69.93%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Canada (Local): 34.29%; Nepal (Visit): 65.71%. For Nepal (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.52. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.47, with an expected value of -3.40%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BoyleSports🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.71%E -2.07%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.38%E -3.73%K -12.22%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-17 04:14
DraftKings🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -5.71%E -2.07%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -6.03%E -4.22%K -14.03%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-17 04:10
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.42%E -2.75%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.38%E -3.73%K -12.22%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-17 05:25
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.42%E -2.75%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.38%E -3.73%K -12.22%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-17 05:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.42%E -2.75%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.38%E -3.73%K -12.22%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-17 05:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -7.42%E -2.75%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -6.03%E -4.22%K -14.03%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 05:25
Grosvenor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -7.42%E -2.75%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -6.03%E -4.22%K -14.03%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 05:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -7.42%E -2.75%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -6.03%E -4.22%K -14.03%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 05:25
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -7.42%E -2.75%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -6.03%E -4.22%K -14.03%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 05:25
TABtouch🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -7.42%E -2.75%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -6.03%E -4.22%K -14.03%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 05:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -7.42%E -2.75%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -6.03%E -4.22%K -14.03%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 05:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -10.85%E -4.17%K -6.78%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -3.40%E -2.32%K -7.24%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-17 05:15
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -10.85%E -4.17%K -6.78%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -3.40%E -2.32%K -7.24%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-17 05:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.