The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Afghanistan v Zimbabwe

Kickoff: 2026-10-23 11:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Afghanistan (Local)

Prediction 76.92%1.30fair odd
EV -2.31%
Edge -1.82%
Kelly -8.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.70%77.08%76.92%78.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.241.241.2783.33%80.87%80.65%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Zimbabwe (Visit)

Prediction 23.08%4.33fair odd
EV -0.078%
Edge -0.018%
Kelly -0.023%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.98%22.92%23.08%25.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.044.104.3326.67%24.75%24.39%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Afghanistan (Local): 76.92%; Zimbabwe (Visit): 23.08%. For Zimbabwe (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.333. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.330, with an expected value of -0.078%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -2.31%E -1.82%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -13.46%E -3.59%K -4.90%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-23 11:25
Coral🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.85%E -3.08%K -15.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.69%E -1.92%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-23 11:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.85%E -3.08%K -15.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.69%E -1.92%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-23 11:05
Sky Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.85%E -3.08%K -15.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.69%E -1.92%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-23 10:40
Paddy Power🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -3.85%E -3.08%K -15.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -13.46%E -3.59%K -4.90%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-23 10:30
Neds🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -3.85%E -3.08%K -15.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -13.46%E -3.59%K -4.90%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-23 11:25
Betsson🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.62%E -3.72%K -19.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -5.39%E -1.31%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-23 11:22
NordicBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.62%E -3.72%K -19.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -5.39%E -1.31%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-23 11:10
TABtouch🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.62%E -3.72%K -19.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -5.39%E -1.31%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-23 11:22
LiveScore Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.62%E -3.72%K -19.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -5.39%E -1.31%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-23 11:22
Unibet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.62%E -3.72%K -19.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -5.39%E -1.31%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-23 11:22
Virgin Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.62%E -3.72%K -19.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -5.39%E -1.31%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-23 11:22
Casumo🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.62%E -3.72%K -19.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -5.39%E -1.31%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-23 11:22
Grosvenor🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.62%E -3.72%K -19.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -5.39%E -1.31%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-23 11:22
Unibet (SE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.62%E -3.72%K -19.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -5.39%E -1.31%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-23 11:22
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.62%E -3.72%K -19.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -5.39%E -1.31%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-23 11:22
ATG (SE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.62%E -3.72%K -19.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -5.39%E -1.31%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-23 11:22
BoyleSports🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.02%EV -6.15%E -5.04%K -27.97%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.98%EV -0.078%E -0.018%K -0.023%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-23 11:09
TAB🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.15%E -5.04%K -27.97%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -3.08%E -0.733%K -0.962%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-23 11:21
SportsBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.28%EV -6.15%E -5.04%K -27.97%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.72%EV -4.23%E -1.02%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-23 11:15
DraftKings🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.15%E -5.04%K -27.97%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -5.39%E -1.31%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-23 11:01
Bet Victor🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.47%EV -7.69%E -6.41%K -38.46%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -10.00%E -2.56%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-23 11:08
betano_uk🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.47%EV -7.69%E -6.41%K -38.46%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -10.00%E -2.56%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-23 11:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01%1.0%2026-10-23 11:16
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01%1.0%2026-10-23 11:16
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01%1.0%2026-10-23 11:22