The School of Odds
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Mumbai Indians v Chennai Super Kings

Kickoff: 2026-04-23 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mumbai Indians (Local)

Prediction 63.69%1.57fair odd
EV -2.56%
Edge -1.67%
Kelly -4.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.03%63.66%63.58%66.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.471.481.5371.43%67.90%67.57%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chennai Super Kings (Visit)

Prediction 36.31%2.75fair odd
EV -0.135%
Edge -0.049%
Kelly -0.077%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.73%36.34%36.42%37.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.462.642.622.7540.65%37.85%38.17%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mumbai Indians (Local): 63.69%; Chennai Super Kings (Visit): 36.31%. For Chennai Super Kings (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.754. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.750, with an expected value of -0.135%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.68%EV -2.56%E -1.67%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.32%EV -6.67%E -2.60%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-23 13:40
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.56%E -1.67%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -9.21%E -3.69%K -6.14%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-22 20:55
GTbets🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -3.20%E -2.10%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -7.40%E -2.90%K -4.77%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 13:49
BetOnline.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.62%EV -4.47%E -2.98%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.38%EV -0.498%E -0.182%K -0.286%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-23 13:44
LowVig.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.62%EV -4.47%E -2.98%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.38%EV -0.498%E -0.182%K -0.286%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-23 13:45
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -4.47%E -2.98%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -4.86%E -1.85%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-23 13:49
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -4.47%E -2.98%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -4.86%E -1.85%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-23 13:44
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.47%E -2.98%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.58%E -2.15%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 13:50
Neds🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.47%E -2.98%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.21%E -3.69%K -6.14%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 13:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.47%E -2.98%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.21%E -3.69%K -6.14%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 13:45
BetUS🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.47%E -2.98%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.21%E -3.69%K -6.14%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 13:53
DraftKings🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -5.11%E -3.43%K -10.43%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -5.58%E -2.15%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 13:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.75%E -3.88%K -11.97%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -3.77%E -1.42%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 13:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.75%E -3.88%K -11.97%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.58%E -2.15%K -3.49%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 13:54
TAB🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.75%E -3.88%K -11.97%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.58%E -2.15%K -3.49%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 13:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.44%EV -5.75%E -3.88%K -11.97%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 37.56%EV -10.67%E -4.34%K -7.31%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 13:39
SportsBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.23%EV -6.38%E -4.34%K -13.58%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.77%EV -4.13%E -1.56%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-23 13:49
Unibet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.66%E -5.28%K -17.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.135%E -0.049%K -0.077%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 13:34
LiveScore Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.66%E -5.28%K -17.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.135%E -0.049%K -0.077%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 13:34
Virgin Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.66%E -5.28%K -17.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.135%E -0.049%K -0.077%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 13:35
Casumo🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -8.29%E -5.76%K -18.85%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -0.135%E -0.049%K -0.077%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 13:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -8.29%E -5.76%K -18.85%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -0.135%E -0.049%K -0.077%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 13:34
Unibet (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -8.29%E -5.76%K -18.85%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -0.135%E -0.049%K -0.077%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 13:35
Grosvenor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -8.29%E -5.76%K -18.85%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -0.135%E -0.049%K -0.077%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 13:34
ATG (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -8.29%E -5.76%K -18.85%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -0.135%E -0.049%K -0.077%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 13:34
theScore Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -8.29%E -5.76%K -18.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -3.77%E -1.42%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 13:34
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -8.29%E -5.76%K -18.85%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -4.86%E -1.85%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 13:34
NordicBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.68%EV -9.57%E -6.74%K -22.78%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -5.58%E -2.15%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-23 13:44
TABtouch🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -10.84%E -7.74%K -27.10%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -0.135%E -0.049%K -0.077%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 13:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.84%2.84I 35.21%NM 35.16%0.1%2026-04-23 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.68%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.32%0.4%2026-04-23 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.52%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48%0.6%2026-04-23 13:50
Matchbook◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.52%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48%0.6%2026-04-23 13:45