The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Turkey v Romania

Kickoff: 2026-07-26 11:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Turkey (Local)

Prediction 10.02%9.98fair odd
EV +120.47%
Edge +5.48%
Kelly +5.74%
Growth +6.91%

assuming max odds 22.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.43%10.02%10.02%15.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.0015.0015.0022.0016.67%6.67%6.67%4.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Romania (Visit)

Prediction 89.98%1.11fair odd
EV -0.124%
Edge -0.111%
Kelly -1.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.39%89.98%89.98%95.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.031.011.1199.01%97.22%99.01%90.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Turkey (Local): 10.02%; Romania (Visit): 89.98%. For Turkey (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.98. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 22.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +120.47%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯22.00I 4.55%NM 4.43%EV +120.47%E +5.48%K +5.74%G +6.91%1.02I 98.04%NM 95.57%EV -8.22%E -8.06%K -411.09%G +0.000%2.6%2026-07-26 11:25
SportsBet🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +70.36%E +4.14%K +4.40%G +3.09%1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -9.12%E -9.03%K -912.16%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-26 11:25
TAB🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV +50.32%E +3.35%K +3.59%G +1.81%1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -7.32%E -7.11%K -244.07%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-26 10:50
Neds🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +50.32%E +3.35%K +3.59%G +1.81%1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -9.12%E -9.03%K -912.16%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-26 11:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +50.32%E +3.35%K +3.59%G +1.81%1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -9.12%E -9.03%K -912.16%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-26 11:15
Paddy Power🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +50.32%E +3.35%K +3.59%G +1.81%1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -9.12%E -9.03%K -912.16%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-26 11:25
BoyleSports🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -39.87%E -6.65%K -7.97%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -0.124%E -0.111%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-26 10:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎9.20I 10.87%NM 10.42%1.07I 93.46%NM 89.58%4.3%2026-07-26 11:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎9.20I 10.87%NM 10.42%1.07I 93.46%NM 89.58%4.3%2026-07-26 11:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%5.2%2026-07-26 11:25

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