The School of Odds

Turkey v Romania

Kickoff: 2026-07-26 11:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Turkey (Local)

Prediction 10.02%9.98fair odd
EV +120.47%
Edge +5.48%
Kelly +5.74%
Growth +6.91%

assuming max odds 22.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.43%10.02%10.02%15.61%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
6.0015.0015.0022.0016.67%6.67%6.67%4.55%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Romania (Visit)

Prediction 89.98%1.11fair odd
EV -0.124%
Edge -0.111%
Kelly -1.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.39%89.98%89.98%95.57%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.011.031.011.1199.01%97.22%99.01%90.09%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel22.00I 4.55%NM 4.43%EV +120.47%E +5.48%K +5.74%G +6.91%1.02I 98.04%NM 95.57%EV -8.22%E -8.06%K -411.09%G +0.000%2.6%2026-07-26 11:25
SportsBet17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +70.36%E +4.14%K +4.40%G +3.09%1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -9.12%E -9.03%K -912.16%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-26 11:25
TAB15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV +50.32%E +3.35%K +3.59%G +1.81%1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -7.32%E -7.11%K -244.07%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-26 10:50
Neds15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +50.32%E +3.35%K +3.59%G +1.81%1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -9.12%E -9.03%K -912.16%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-26 11:15
Ladbrokes (AU)15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +50.32%E +3.35%K +3.59%G +1.81%1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -9.12%E -9.03%K -912.16%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-26 11:15
Paddy Power15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +50.32%E +3.35%K +3.59%G +1.81%1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -9.12%E -9.03%K -912.16%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-26 11:25
BoyleSports6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -39.87%E -6.65%K -7.97%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -0.124%E -0.111%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-26 10:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)9.20I 10.87%NM 10.42%1.07I 93.46%NM 89.58%4.3%2026-07-26 11:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)9.20I 10.87%NM 10.42%1.07I 93.46%NM 89.58%4.3%2026-07-26 11:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%5.2%2026-07-26 11:25