The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Thailand v Bhutan

Kickoff: 2026-02-26 02:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Thailand (Local)

Prediction 76.12%1.31fair odd
EV -2.56%
Edge -2.00%
Kelly -9.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.40%76.27%76.34%78.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.231.221.2884.75%81.51%81.97%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bhutan (Visit)

Prediction 23.88%4.19fair odd
EV +5.06%
Edge +1.15%
Kelly +1.49%
Growth +0.075%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.15%23.73%23.66%25.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.724.024.004.4026.88%24.88%25.00%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Thailand (Local): 76.12%; Bhutan (Visit): 23.88%. For Bhutan (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.19. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.06%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -8.65%E -7.21%K -43.26%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV +5.06%E +1.15%K +1.49%G +0.075%6.1%2026-02-26 01:54
FanDuel🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -10.17%E -8.62%K -56.53%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV +5.06%E +1.15%K +1.49%G +0.075%7.5%2026-02-26 01:54
GTbets🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -8.65%E -7.21%K -43.26%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV +1.48%E +0.347%K +0.454%G +0.007%6.9%2026-02-25 23:25
Bet Right🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.85%E -3.88%K -19.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.49%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-26 01:54
PlayUp🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.85%E -3.88%K -19.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.49%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-26 01:54
DraftKings🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.61%E -4.52%K -23.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -4.49%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-25 23:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.13%E -5.84%K -32.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.49%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-26 01:54
Neds🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.13%E -5.84%K -32.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.49%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-26 01:54
Paddy Power🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.13%E -5.84%K -32.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.49%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-26 01:55
888sport🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.13%E -5.84%K -32.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.49%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-26 01:54
TAB🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.13%E -5.84%K -32.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.49%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-26 01:54
Betway🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -8.65%E -7.21%K -43.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -4.49%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-26 01:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -4.85%E -3.88%K -19.38%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -6.88%E -1.76%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-26 01:54
Betr (AU)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.02%EV -6.37%E -5.18%K -27.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.98%EV -6.88%E -1.76%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-26 01:50
BoyleSports🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.85%E -3.88%K -19.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -10.46%E -2.79%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-25 14:30
Pinnacle🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.40%EV -2.56%E -2.00%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.60%EV -11.18%E -3.00%K -4.11%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-26 00:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%6.5%2026-02-26 01:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%6.5%2026-02-26 01:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%6.5%2026-02-26 01:55