The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Thailand v Bhutan

Kickoff: 2026-02-28 02:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Thailand (Local)

Prediction 82.47%1.21fair odd
EV -3.51%
Edge -3.00%
Kelly -20.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
79.37%82.30%82.42%84.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.111.141.141.1790.09%87.81%87.72%85.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bhutan (Visit)

Prediction 17.53%5.71fair odd
EV +9.54%
Edge +1.53%
Kelly +1.82%
Growth +0.173%

assuming max odds 6.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.08%17.70%17.58%20.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.375.256.2522.22%18.62%19.05%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Thailand (Local): 82.47%; Bhutan (Visit): 17.53%. For Bhutan (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.71. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.54%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
GTbets🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -8.45%E -7.62%K -76.86%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV +9.54%E +1.53%K +1.82%G +0.173%6.1%2026-02-28 01:34
FanDuel🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -7.63%E -6.81%K -63.58%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV +5.16%E +0.860%K +1.03%G +0.053%6.0%2026-02-28 01:48
DraftKings🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -8.45%E -7.62%K -76.86%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV +5.16%E +0.860%K +1.03%G +0.053%6.8%2026-02-28 01:34
SportsBet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -6.80%E -6.02%K -52.35%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV +0.777%E +0.135%K +0.164%G +0.001%5.9%2026-02-28 01:49
Pinnacle🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.81%EV -5.16%E -4.48%K -34.37%G +0.000%5.54I 18.05%NM 17.19%EV -2.90%E -0.524%K -0.640%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-27 22:24
Paddy Power🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.98%E -5.25%K -42.72%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -3.60%E -0.655%K -0.801%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-28 01:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.98%E -5.25%K -42.72%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -3.60%E -0.655%K -0.801%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-28 01:49
Neds🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.98%E -5.25%K -42.72%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -3.60%E -0.655%K -0.801%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-28 01:44
PlayUp🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -4.33%E -3.73%K -27.07%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -7.99%E -1.52%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-28 01:29
Bet Right🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -4.33%E -3.73%K -27.07%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -7.99%E -1.52%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-28 01:34
Betway🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.42%EV -7.63%E -6.81%K -63.58%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV -7.99%E -1.52%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-28 01:48
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.51%E -3.00%K -20.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -12.37%E -2.47%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-28 01:34
Betr (AU)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -4.33%E -3.73%K -27.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -12.37%E -2.47%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-28 01:34
TAB🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -4.33%E -3.73%K -27.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -12.37%E -2.47%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-28 01:34
Betsson🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.83%EV -8.45%E -7.62%K -76.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -12.37%E -2.47%K -3.09%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-28 01:33
NordicBet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.83%EV -8.45%E -7.62%K -76.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -12.37%E -2.47%K -3.09%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-28 01:34
BoyleSports🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -3.51%E -3.00%K -20.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -21.13%E -4.70%K -6.04%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-27 15:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.16I 86.21%NM 85.05%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.95%1.4%2026-02-28 01:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.16I 86.21%NM 84.66%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.34%1.8%2026-02-28 01:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%4.7%2026-02-28 01:54