Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sierra Leone v Uganda

Kickoff: 2026-09-15 07:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

94%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sierra Leone (Local)

Prediction 5.73%17.44fair odd

EV +49.07%

Edge +1.89%

Kelly +1.96%

Growth +0.963%

assuming max odds 26.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

3.77%5.73%5.73%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

12.0017.5016.0026.008.33%5.71%6.25%3.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Uganda (Visit)

Prediction 94.27%1.06fair odd

EV -3.85%

Edge -3.77%

Kelly -192.42%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

92.31%94.27%94.27%96.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.001.011.011.02100.00%99.01%99.01%98.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sierra Leone (Local): 5.73%; Uganda (Visit): 94.27%. For Sierra Leone (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 17.44. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 26.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +49.07%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
FanDuel🎯	26.00I 3.85%NM 3.77%EV +49.07%E +1.89%K +1.96%G +0.963%	1.02I 98.04%NM 96.23%EV -3.85%E -3.77%K -192.42%G +0.000%	1.9%	2026-09-15 07:09
SportsBet🎯	17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -2.53%E -0.149%K -0.158%G +0.000%	1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.79%E -4.74%K -479.10%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-15 07:05
Paddy Power🎯	15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -14.00%E -0.933%K -1.000%G +0.000%	1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.79%E -4.74%K -479.10%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-09-15 07:05
Betway🎯	12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -31.20%E -2.60%K -2.84%G +0.000%	1.00I 100.00%NM 92.31%EV -5.73%E -5.73%K +0.000%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-09-14 23:15

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	40.00I 2.50%NM 2.49%	1.02I 98.04%NM 97.51%	0.5%	2026-09-15 07:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	40.00I 2.50%NM 2.49%	1.02I 98.04%NM 97.51%	0.5%	2026-09-15 07:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	34.00I 2.94%NM 2.91%	1.02I 98.04%NM 97.09%	1.0%	2026-09-15 07:10