The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Rwanda v Zambia

Kickoff: 2026-08-12 11:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rwanda (Local)

Prediction 68.58%1.46fair odd
EV -0.555%
Edge -0.383%
Kelly -1.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.48%68.58%68.58%70.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.421.431.4573.53%70.34%69.93%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Zambia (Visit)

Prediction 31.42%3.18fair odd
EV +2.11%
Edge +0.648%
Kelly +0.936%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.50%31.42%31.42%34.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.872.793.2536.36%34.88%35.78%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rwanda (Local): 68.58%; Zambia (Visit): 31.42%. For Zambia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.18. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.11%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -6.73%E -4.95%K -18.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV +2.11%E +0.648%K +0.936%G +0.020%4.3%2026-08-12 10:45
SportsBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.98%EV -3.30%E -2.34%K -8.04%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.02%EV -10.15%E -3.55%K -5.46%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-11 18:55
FanDuel🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.67%EV -2.61%E -1.84%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.33%EV -10.78%E -3.79%K -5.86%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-11 19:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -0.555%E -0.383%K -1.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -13.60%E -4.95%K -7.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-11 19:00
Neds🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -0.555%E -0.383%K -1.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -13.60%E -4.95%K -7.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-11 18:59
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -1.24%E -0.862%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -13.60%E -4.95%K -7.77%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-11 18:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.31I 76.34%NM 70.63%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.37%8.1%2026-08-12 10:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.31I 76.34%NM 70.63%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.37%8.1%2026-08-12 10:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.31I 76.34%NM 70.63%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.37%8.1%2026-08-12 10:55